Barroso's second term hangs by a thread: the elections!

(B2) The reappointment of José-Manuel Barroso to his post as President of the Commission seems acquired by listening to the spreaders of news, who are to information what are to bread, the diffusers of smells near bakeries... a simple artificial perfume. But when you ask your interlocutor on what basis he affirms this, he looks at you in astonishment. "But everyone supports him..." To claim therefore that Barroso will be renewed for his term of office in the Commission for 5 years, from the month of June, is to ignore three "small" elements of a legal, political and, above all, democratic.

1° The legal reality. According to the Treaty, the President of the European Commission is certainly appointed by the Member States. But it must above all be dubbed by the new European Parliament, whose first constituent meeting takes place in July. And no one knows what majority will come out of the polls in June, or what alliance will form in Parliament afterwards. Especially since the number of deputies will be reduced compared to that existing today (we go from 785 to 736 deputies).

2° political realism. If it is true that some heads of government have said they want to support JM Barroso. Many of them immediately added "for the moment" or "I don't see any other candidate". In the absence of something better... Which is to say, I have a candidate but I don't show my card until the others have dubbed him. In two large countries (Germany, France), at least, Barroso's fate is not assured (especially since there are elections in Germany).

3° The democratic fact. The June elections are such an addition of factors (national, number of parties running, European, economic) that it is very difficult today to be peremptory. Several tendencies can be brought to light and come into play during the election:
A) the possible rise of social democrats PSE - or, at least, a lesser than expected "fall" - for two reasons. On the one hand, the economic context: the financial crisis has undoubtedly brought water to the mill of the social-democratic parties. On the other hand, the political context: in several large countries (except the United Kingdom and Spain), they are not in government (or at least do not have leadership like in Germany or the Netherlands) and could take advantage of the "opposing effect".
B) The possible good score of a left-wing party ex-communist (helping with the financial crisis), could also have an effect that strengthens the left side of the assembly (compensates for the crushing of the PSE);
C) The Green (helping energy crisis) should also make an honorable score.
D) On the other hand, for the group liberal democrat in the middle, nothing is certain. Will he be able to maintain his pivotal role? Or will he have to deal with a new EPP, or with the Greens.
E) The appearance of one (or two) group(s) ofextreme right and/or sovereignist-populist - with elements that would be tempted to separate from the EPP, could weaken it.

Finally, it is not said at all that the European People's Party (PPE-DE) - the Christian Democrats - retains the clear lead it has today in the European Parliament (unless there is a recomposition with the liberal centre). If he finds himself cropped on his right and threatened by the center left, he will have to, at least, deal with two or three other parties to have a majority: with the populist right and with the liberals or even with the Greens. To first keep the presidency of Parliament - and of the main committees. Then to impose its candidate for the presidency of the Commission. Now, if there is a candidate who today makes the Liberals, the Greens and the Socio-Democrats roar as much, it is Barroso. Ask Graham Watson, Dany Cohn-Bendit or Martin Schulz, respectively at the head of these parties today, what they think of it. Presenting the name of Barroso is certainly for the EPP a certain risk of not having the majority. Especially since within the EPP, certain parties or at least certain personalities from these countries - such as the CDU, the UMP or the Dutch CDA - are not fanatics of the character... Another more presentable candidate, less arousing the controversy could therefore pass.

Next: Barroso's record

(NGV)