(B2) For General Claude Van de Voorde, head of the Belgian General Intelligence and Security Service (SGRS), the Turkish advance in Syria is bringing about several upheavals
Even if on the ground the situation is very fluctuating, the analysis of the head of the SGRS made before the Belgian deputies on October 16, is worth the detour.
A situation that can lead to an impasse
Of the five towns targeted near the border — Ras al-Ain, Tall Ayad, Manbij, Kobané and Qamichli — the first two fell. This led to the departure of American troops. For now, " the Turks stay in the desert ". The provisional conclusions of the SGRS are that they " will be limited to this triangle of 100 km in length and 30 km in depth in Syrian territory, underlines C. Van de Voorde highlighting a point: “ The current situation will lead us to an impasse ».
Kurdish resistance weaker than expected
Among the first findings, the Kurdish resistance was weaker than expected ". This explains a fairly rapid Turkish advance. Corn " the alliance of the Kurds with the Syrian army was a game-changer ". Besides, " the Kurdish militias – the Kurdish SDF forces – are now fully integrated into a division of the Syrian army ". That constitutes " a dissuasive shield against the Turks, who are calmer and less offensive in their actions ».
A masterstroke from the Russians
Russia is a winner in this action, according to C. Van de Voorde: “ This is once again a masterstroke on the part of the Russian regime, since it is thus strengthening its position in the region to the detriment of the European Union and NATO.. On the ground, Russia is very present. Without her actually taking part in the fighting for the time being, it sponsors the Syrian army and in some cases, "lhe Turkish army's offensive inclinations are tempered by the presence of a kind of Russian military police ».
... and a Syrian advance
C. Van de Voorde also recalls that with regard to " interlocutors for the future, the recovery of the North-East of the country by the Assad regime will be important for a future solution to the Syrian conflict.