Will Trump get European defense off the ground? Not sure…
(BRUSSELS2) Will the election of Donald Trump to the US presidency be a reason for Europeans to come together and find reasons to act more together, to strengthen European defense and industry? We can hope for it, wish it. Some say it and express it. But the opposite could just as well be possible and should be considered.
Do not leave me...
The few words of Donald Trump on NATO can certainly appear as campaign remarks. They will arouse on the part of European leaders who do not want to see NATO diminish its role or the Americans stop investing in it. This is therefore not the time to create the slightest bit of uncertainty for Europeans or a possible alternative that could allow Washington to take advantage of it. This movement has already begun. In several countries (Belgium, Germany, etc.), leaders are constantly stepping up to demonstrate the usefulness of NATO. And the NATO Secretary General sounded the alarm (read his exclusive interview with B2: A European defence, yes, but in addition to NATO). Then you have to go to the checkout...
yes...i will pay more
What Donald Trump said about transatlantic solidarity — no solidarity without a European effort — can give rise to various interpretations. In the first degree, the American ambition is to quantify the American effort to the European effort. This is called burden sharing. Trump is concretely following in the footsteps of his predecessors (Bush, Obama). It is up to the Europeans to take responsibility for themselves a little more, leading to an increase in defense expenditure budgets (1) but also greater risk-taking. A speech that is not free from contradiction on the American side. Because if this rise in power of the Europeans is desired, the Americans ultimately do not want it to be too autonomous.
Buy American or I'm off!
In the second degree, Trump's remarks are more of a trade negotiator's attitude. The threat of further providing assistance to the Europeans must be taken as a desire to ensure the loyalty of the Europeans. And it works, judging by the statements in European capitals. It is accompanied by a desire to have more return on investment, in the purest style of the “I want my money back” principle. In other words, if the Americans provide part of the European defence, the Europeans have to pay more, in kind if necessary, by buying... American. In all this logic, we are quite far from strengthening an autonomous European defence...
(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde)
Lire: Trump elected, Europe will have to move its buttocks!
(1) The target set to spend 2% of GDP on defense is a silly target. Without a Europe-wide spending plan, it is likely to result in scattered purchases, a waste of money as there has been in the past, and will not as such solve the remaining shortcomings.
