External operations. The Alliance is changing its strategy?
(BRUSSELS2) During its summit in Warsaw at the beginning of July, the Atlantic Alliance should strengthen its territorial defense on the eastern flank. This is the most visible and sensitive element today because it is part of a context of renewed tension with Russia - with many declarations, troop movements and exercises on both sides (see the mega Anaconda exercise in Poland these days). But what is less visible is the notable shift that seems to be taking place in the Alliance's external operations. What Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary General, calls the "stability projection", is not just a communication slogan. It's quite a paradigm shift.
Rather train than deploy
The Alliance now prefers to rely on the training of local forces able to ensure their own security than to deploy Western military forces in large numbers, whether in Afghanistan - with its training and advisory mission "Resolute Support" — or in Iraq. And it should not be otherwise in Libya (if the Libyan government sends a formal invitation to the Alliance) (1). The former Norwegian Prime Minister who now leads the Alliance, thus prints his brand, less flashy than its predecessor, AF Rasmussen, but no less determined: training rather than deploying.
A certain admission of failure?
This shift also reflects a certain admission of failure of the ISAF operation. The Alliance and the American forces did not really succeed in stabilizing the country, in particular in the south, close to the border with Pakistan (Helmand). The commitment of more than 100.000 men for several years has not proven its effects. Placed in bunkered camps, military interest was often limited to the short term. As for the political interest, it is not proven. To think of tilting a population, in the camp of stability, if this one is not assured of seeing the foreign forces stay (and win), is illusory.
The Alliance in support of coalitions
The deployment of combat forces has not been abandoned for all that. But it is carried out rather in " coalition » formal (in Iraq against Daesh/ISIL) or very informal (in Libya), NATO possibly having a supporting role – with the deployment of Awacs planes – but no longer a leading role, as in the Balkans or in Afghanistan.
(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde)
(1) Contrary to certain analyzes which see in a declaration or a movement of special forces the prelude to some intervention. Read also: An intervention in Libya is being prepared. But which one?
