The non-existent political solution in Syria
(BRUSSELS2) Everyone has this word on their lips. It takes a " find a political solution to the conflict for Syria. " It's the only way as the spokesperson for Catherine Ashton, the High Representative of the EU, reminded us again today. A constant in European diplomacy since the start of the conflict more than two years ago... But today, we still seem very far away.
Not the ounce of a modality
It's not even the political solution to the Syrian crisis that seems far away. But the very modalities of finding a solution. Because, unlike other international situations, there is not even an ounce of agreement on ... how to make an agreement. The lowest common denominator would be the creation of a contact group. It's a fairly tried-and-true formula for international negotiations: we take a few countries close to each of the parties, other countries that are a little more neutral, one or two facilitators. And then, we shake, we agitate. And we look for a solution together by meeting at more or less close intervals. It works... more or less well, depending on the crises and the times. But this allows at least to talk and lay the foundations of a future agreement or even to thwart certain escalations of the conflict.
An "action group" that has action only in name
The (non) Geneva agreements a year ago had indeed envisaged the establishment of an "action group", bringing together 12 parties (*). But since ... nothing. The group did not meet even by the admission of a European diplomat. It's not for lack of trying. " The European Union is ready ". But no one else is really willing. Despite the declarations, France, the United Kingdom, the United States do not really want to play the game of negotiation with the regime. Some countries are downright hostile to it, such as Qatar. We are still in warlike phraseology, as Hillary Clinton said more than a year ago. "The Syrian president must understand that his days are numbered." As a result, with each additional massacre, with each Council of Ministers of the EU, most of the Member States gargle to seek a political solution or take refuge behind this word to refuse other solutions (military in particular). But we are not advancing one bit.
NB: This "action group" (whose name may be subject to irony) is made up of 12 members: the five permanent members of the Security Council (USA, Russia, China, France, UK) ; the three countries presiding over the destinies of the Arab League (Iraq for the top of the League, Kuwait for the Council of Ministers of Foreign Affairs, Qatar for the Syria Monitoring Group); the Turkey ; three organizations (Arab League, ONU - represented by their general secretary - and European Union, represented by the High Representative for Foreign Affairs).
Comment: an imperfect group
This contact group has one main flaw, it does not involve certain parties to the conflict (Qatar and Turkey) but not the others (Iran and Lebanon in particular). Admittedly, the Islamic Republic is still often perceived as the devil. But how to negotiate without his presence? Negotiation is not a matter of a friendly lunch but of a confrontation, other than on the battlefield. Another defect is that there are very few of the usual, more neutral intermediaries of an international negotiation. The presence of a more neutral European country (such as Austria, Sweden or Norway or even Cyprus - close to Syria - or Luxembourg, a member of the Security Council) and an Asian country (India or Japan) would not be superfluous. And above all, a meeting dynamic should be triggered, at least between the most willing. The European Union could take the lead on this project, by proposing an E4 meeting (France, United Kingdom, Luxembourg, Sweden) +4 (Russia, China, USA, Japan) + 4 (Qatar, Turkey, Iraq, Iran) , For example. Or any other format that our diplomats have found. Otherwise, we will continue to talk about a political solution, without really testing it, and only the military solution will prevail... even more so. (update) In any case, part of the solution will be found by taking the road to Moscow and recognizing the Russians' weight in the negotiations.
