Serbia in the European concert?
If the ministers in charge of European Affairs of the EU agree, on Monday, to send the application for membership to the European Commission, Serbia could join the ranks of aspiring candidates for the European Union. This launches the enlargement procedure. In general, after this "green light", membership is in the line of sight... barring an accident. It will probably take several years of negotiation, accompanied (this is a rule) by tensions or slammed doors on both sides, for it to become effective. But in Brussels, no one doubts that Serbia will have the right to sit at the European table within half a dozen years (the average time for a negotiation).
26 vs. 1
One opposition remains: that of the Netherlands. The 2nd chamber thus voted, last Wednesday, a motion which provides that " The Netherlands must only approve the continuation of the procedure for Serbia's accession to the EU when this country fully cooperates with the International Criminal Court in The Hague ". But even in The Hague, there seems to be little belief in the postponement of the Commission's recommendation. The Netherlands are playing 26 to 1 and are "isolated" on the issue, and the new government has only just been installed.
The Serbian bet on the way to success
Even if it remains undermined by a certain corruption, and by the question of the past of the Yugoslav wars, the Serbian state is one of the most structured in the region. And he could move forward quite quickly in the various negotiating chapters. At least faster than its neighbours: Montenegro, Macedonia or Albania. Its political weight is necessary for the stabilization process that began fifteen years ago (since the Dayton-Paris agreements in fact). And its 8 million inhabitants of Serbia make this country the most important in the region (with Greece to the south and Austria to the north). In doing so, Serbia will have succeeded in its bet: joining the European concert in the wake of Croatia's accession, which is at the end of its journey. Once the accession of Croatia (and Iceland) has been swallowed, the EU is thus preparing for an eighth enlargement which could include: Serbia, Macedonia (once the name issue has been settled with Greece) and Montenegro.
