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The future Commission 2010, the likely and possible

(BRUSSELS2) Since my last check-in (July), there have been many changes. So I put on a permanent page, regularly updated, a list of names expected to take their place in the future European Commission in 2010.

2010 ... The Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which is the official depositary of the Treaty of Rome as of Lisbon, has indeed officially confirmed that the Treaty of Lisbon should enter into force on 1er January 2010. It is only then that the 27 Heads of State and/or Government will be able to appoint their representatives officially. And the European Parliament will then be able to begin its work of hearing the prospective commissioners. The new Commission would then take office in February (if all goes well, and no commissioner fails). Until then the current Commission will be in "current affairs".

Even if the official appointment should be later, a majority of countries have already designated, more or less officially, their representative within the future Commission. And we can already make several observations.

A clear predominance of the right - EPP (11 to 14 against 9 today) and ALDE (7 against 10 today) while the PSE capped (4 to 7, including the Slovak, the Czech and the Dutch, against 6 today), and 2 to 3 "technicians". Which is quite logical and reflects the current composition of European governments. But this does not reflect the Left-Right balance in Europe which often fluctuates between 40-60%. This therefore constitutes a risk for an institution supposed to represent the general interest. Especially since in 5 years, the trend can be reversed in the Member States. Beware, however, of rapid amalgams: a Czech or British social democrat is closer to a Dutch liberal, while a Belgian liberal or a French UMP is closer to a Swedish social democrat.Very few women for the moment: only 4 in the "nominees"! (compared to up to 10 in the 2004 Commission). As a result, countries that put forward a "good" candidate always have a better chance than a "good" candidate.n a number of Commissioners remain in office : at least 9 if we do not count those who arrived recently, 12 otherwise


Access to permanent page.

Nicolas Gros Verheyde

Chief editor of the B2 site. Graduated in European law from the University of Paris I Pantheon Sorbonne and listener to the 65th session of the IHEDN (Institut des Hautes Etudes de la Défense Nationale. Journalist since 1989, founded B2 - Bruxelles2 in 2008. EU/NATO correspondent in Brussels for Sud-Ouest (previously West-France and France-Soir).

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