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When Lukashenko becomes a warlord and reveals the keys to the Russian offensive on Ukraine

(B2) This is an amazing video from which we took image captures. We see Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko giving a lecture to his council on the Russian and Belarusian intervention in Ukraine.

The Russian-Belarusian intervention card with President Lukashenko as schoolmaster (Photo: TV Belarus – screenshot B2)

Belarusian President A. Lukashenko is either a profound imbecile or an ace in the double game. He has just indulged, in a Show of which he has the secret in front of a meeting of his national security council broadcast on national television, to an explanation of the maps of the offensive. Giving himself the role of chief planner of Russian operations of which he is only an executor. A very interesting demonstration in the presence of his Minister of Defense Andrei Ravkov, who appears pale throughout the demonstration.

An offense from five points

On this map, we clearly see the Russian offensive taking place from five points: Russia, but also Belarus to the north; the Black Sea and Crimea (annexed by Russia since 2014) to the South; from Donbass to the East.

Ukraine divided into four zones

On this map, we also see Ukraine is divided into four zones. The West, with its eight oblasts (provinces) from Lviv to Khmelnytsky, is preserved.

Cutting Ukraine off from its access to the sea

In the South, we clearly see the objectives: to control the Black Sea, using troops from the sea to join forces with the troops present in Transnistria, and to cut off the Ukrainian part of the Danube delta. Objective of this offensive, with other troops from Crimea: to take Odessa in pincers and conquer the province of Kherson. But there does not seem to be any question of going west (towards the province of Vinnytsya) or north (province of Kirovohrad).

Conquer the Donbass

In the East, on the other hand, it is clear: we see a double offensive from Donbass and Crimea to conquer not only the entire province of (the separatist republic) of Donetsk (towards Mariupol) but also the province of Zaporizhzhya, notably the towns of Melitopol and especially the port of Berdyansk, but also the province of Kharkiv. We can clearly see the Russian desire to seize “useful” Ukraine (Eastern Ukraine is rich in mineral resources: coal, manganese, etc.), and to cut off Ukraine from its access to the sea.

The capital and the power targeted

But it is in central Ukraine, around kyiv in Sumy, that the most major offensive is taking place. We are no longer here with a logical objective aiming to preserve the Russian-speaking population (fallacious argument sometimes used by the Russians) or to consolidate the independence of the two separatist republics of Luhansk and Donetsk (objective of the intervention clearly announced by Vladimir Putin during the declaration of recognition of these “republics”). We are here in an attempt to destabilize Ukrainian power, to overthrow the elected democratic government of V. Zelensky.

The desire for revenge on 2014 and 2011

A sort of revenge for 2014 which saw the pro-Russian leader of Ukraine, Yanukovych, flee the capital after the first serious clashes. A sort of replica also of the NATO offensive on Libya which had seen the military operation gradually abandon its initial objective (interposition in a desire for repression by Gaddafi) validated by the UN, for undertake (under the leadership of the French and British) an operation to overthrow power in Tripoli, which ultimately resulted in the “neutralization” of leader Muammar Gaddafi.

(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde)

NB: contrary to what has been said, there is no offensive towards Moldova on this map. There is a junction between the troops from Transnistria and those who land in Ukraine.

Nicolas Gros Verheyde

Chief editor of the B2 site. Graduated in European law from the University of Paris I Pantheon Sorbonne and listener to the 65th session of the IHEDN (Institut des Hautes Etudes de la Défense Nationale. Journalist since 1989, founded B2 - Bruxelles2 in 2008. EU/NATO correspondent in Brussels for Sud-Ouest (previously West-France and France-Soir).