Gas is a weapon, the Russians prove it... It's up to the Europeans to react

(B2)Blocking Russian gas to Ukraine and European countries is a weapon. A weapon literally and figuratively. And the Russians prove it. It is a strategic coup, on two levels. But also a real opportunity for Europeans. Energy security will be on the agenda of an informal Council of 27 on energy security in Prague today.

Usefulness of the crisis for the Russians

1°: Ukraine discredited. The crisis demonstrates that Ukraine is not a reliable partner either for NATO or for the European Union. It is difficult today even for the most loyal supporters of rapprochement between Ukraine and the Western world to work in this direction, after Ukrainian incompetence. Without having the brutality, nor the total effectiveness of the coup on Georgia, it neutralizes Ukraine's potential candidacy for a few more months.

2°: a warning shot to the Czech Republic and “its” anti-missile shield. The gas blockade shows the dependence of Eastern European states tempted by an American anti-missile shield (Poland, Czech Republic, even Lithuania, etc.) which irritates (the word is weak!) the Russians. And what a singular coincidence that this crisis broke out just when the Czechs took over their rotating presidency! They who signed (but not yet ratified) with the Americans the installation of a radar. This probably won't change the minds of the Czechs. Although the agreement has still not been definitively adopted (the Chamber of Deputies must still vote on it, normally at the beginning of February). And above all, at just the moment when the new Obama administration is going to take the reins of power, it is a singular call to order for Russian interests.

Usefulness of the crisis for Europeans

It is urgent to take action. No more procrastination, no more questions, no more alternations... Consider, as the Czech Presidency and the European Commission did in the early days, that this is only a private dispute, in which it is better not to get involved, is suicidal.

Europe must be strong, not weak. Yes, it’s a private dispute – and it doesn’t matter who’s at fault. But it causes damage to Europeans, and significant damage, especially in the middle of winter. And like any customer of a company, they have the right to respect their contract. The European Union must therefore get involved in this dispute because it directly concerns it; it is a basic rule of civil and commercial liability before being a political rule. The EU must get involved. Because no one can be fooled by Gazprom's proximity not only to power – the link is organic, it is a state company – but also, and above all, to the FSB – the Russian secret services. What Gasprom decides is what the Kremlin decides. On the Russian side, the dispute is private, the decision is political.

Europe must be bold and not cautious. It is about moving forward as a group of 27 in terms of diversity, solidarity and energy security. It does not matter that the Treaty of Lisbon which
contains certain clearer provisions is not adopted. The excuse of insufficient legal bases in the current treaties is a false excuse. An excuse not to act. All legal experts will tell you that a legal basis is sought, found and, if necessary, interpreted (see detailed review of the possible bases).

(NGV)

(1) To complete, you can read or reread the analysis of Pierre Verluise made in October 2006 on EU-Russia trade relations and the use of Gazprom by the government