Serbia in the EU, in 2012 or 2013?
(B2) Should Serbian feelings about Kosovo be taken seriously? Yes, if we are to believe the tone of the main leaders who, again, yesterday, in fact said "never without Kosovo", "to choose between Kosovo and Europe, I choose Kosovo"... You shouldn't fall for such lures.
What are the Serbs trying to negotiate? Certainly not Kosovo. They have already lost it, like the four wars already lost from 1991 to 1999 (Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, Kosovo). And, even if officially, they do not want to recognize it, in their concrete negotiations with the EC on the stabilization agreement (the SAA), they barely mention the fate of their former province.
Moreover, Kosovo does not appear in the projects for the allocation of future European funds for Serbia. "It has never been so. And Serbia has never made this question a prerequisite" confided to me an official close to the file (as we say when we do not want to quote a high-placed source).
Isn't the Serbian interest rather in the EU? Despite the denials of their leaders, doesn't the objective rather seem to be to negotiate an accelerated accession to the EU in order, if not to catch up with Croatia (Croatia is aiming for 2011 for its accession), at least to have an almost simultaneous?
Which does not pose any major problems, except for the question of war criminals (which is about to be settled, at least if we are to believe Karadzic's arrest on Sunday evening). According to the admission of the European seraglio, Serbia is “more solid” than certain Member States which are already members (Romania and above all Bulgaria) or candidate countries (Macedonia).
Serbia, member of the EU by 2013?
A year ago, Janez Jansa, the Slovenian Prime Minister, confided to me - following a European Council - that he saw the accession of a majority of Balkan states by the end of the structural funds period (2013). And we can believe this man generally well informed for countries which were, until recently, in the same state. For France, which holds - this second half of 2008 - the presidency of the EU, bringing Serbia to a recognized candidacy would be a great victory, both in the past and for the future.
A future blocking power... for Kosovo (who could bite their fingers)
The interest is well understood by the Serbs. Once inside the EU, Serbia will have a say in future membership. Decisions are taken unanimously. Serbia will then be able to calmly block any commitment to negotiation, or even the opening or closing of a chapter (as France threatens to do for Turkey), or the signing of the comprehensive accession treaty of a future independent Kosovar state... unless by then she changes her mind.
(NGV)
