In the world, four “key areas” for European security.
(B2) The European Union headquarters, based in Brussels, is monitoring very closely several areas in the world which could require European military intervention for a peacekeeping or stabilization mission in 2009. Three areas are particularly monitored : Abkhazia-Georgia, if a Russian easing occurs, the Middle East, in particular if a peace plan is affirmed between Palestine and Israel or Iraq if the American troops disengage, and Africa, an area of "natural" operation of the EU and where many conflicts are underlying.
A situation to be compared to the "threats", described in the White paper (French) on defense, published in June, which distinguishes four risk areas:
• The arc of crisis – from the Atlantic to the Indian Ocean. "The new risk of a connection of conflicts is emerging between the Near and Middle East and the region of Pakistan and Afghanistan. The existence of generally clandestine programs of nuclear, chemical and biological systems aggravates this danger, while the countries of these regions acquire in large numbers, overtly or not, military capacities based on air vectors and missiles.The destabilization of Iraq, divided into rival communities, risks spreading in the Middle-East."
Conclusion: Europe and France are probably called upon to commit themselves even more in the future in the whole area, to help in the prevention and resolution of crises".
• Security in Sub-Saharan Africa. “France and Europe cannot ignore the continent that is closest to them” especially since Africa has many resources and is “more and more coveted”. Among the risks, the living conditions linked to growing urbanization, lack of health structures, scarcity of local food resources, endemic wars...
• The European continent. "Russia has not yet completed the development initiated in the 1990s. The construction of balanced relations will remain a major objective in the years to come. Stabilization of the Balkans must call not for distancing, but, on the contrary, a redoubling of attention."
• The effect of major conflicts in Asia. "The sources of conflicts inherited from the second half of the XNUMXth century and still unresolved create a risk that is all the more serious as three major nuclear states have common borders, not recognized internationally (India-Pakistan, China-India). A conflict in Asia would have a significant impact: economic on a growing continent, energy – through supply demand; strategic (maritime routes, etc.).
In general, we can only recommend the reading of this White Paper, of which we can underline a certain clairvoyance in the analysis of the risks and above all a well-asserted desire to go beyond the strict hexagonal vision to encompass the whole of the EU. Which is rare enough in French documents of this type to be noted. See in particular a short summary of "new vulnerabilities"(which points out in passing the persistent slippage in Afghanistan).
