Fiction 2017 – Europe and Turkey establish a new structure

(BRUSSELS2 - fiction *) 15-16 June 2017, the 34 (the Balkan States are now members of the European Union) meet for the traditional European Summit, this time in Valletta. Malta hesitated a lot before, to host this summit, question of organization. But nearly 330 years after the Battle of Mohács, which saw an Austro-Hungarian coalition halt Turkish expansion on the continent, Europe and Turkey are coming together to sign a series of agreements and establish a new European structure. Pan-European Confederation, Mediterranean Union… the name remains to be found. In any case, a page seems to be turning on the European hesitation of the 2000s and the hope of permanently silencing the violence in the Middle East seems within reach.

In the 2000s, precisely, Turkey's accession to the European Union haunted all the capitals and hovered over electoral deadlines. All the solutions considered seem impossible. Full membership entails a complete overhaul of the EU institutional system. More than a cultural or religious problem — Muslim countries like Albania and Bosnia are in the process of integration — it is a structural problem. For Turkey to become "the first European country" seems difficult for the founding countries (Germany, France, etc.) as well as the new ones (Poland, United Kingdom, etc.). It is also the door open to other accessions (Ukraine, Russia), which are just as overwhelming. However, after years of expansion, Europe intends to limit its territory.

Non-adherence poses just as many problems. The major efforts of the former Ottoman Empire to bring itself up to democratic standards expose it to instability. A harsh or Islamist military regime shattered at the gates of Europe is not a minor risk. The median solution of the privileged partnership sounds like a dead end. Turkey already benefits from a number of provisions: free movement of goods with the Customs Union, similar equality of Turkish and European workers (right to social benefits, no possible expulsion in the event of integration, etc.) resulting from the old agreement of 1963 association, participation in community programs.

Moreover, these last two solutions deprive Europe of Turkey's incomparable advantage: its openness to the Middle Eastern and Muslim world and its political-military power.

Learning the lesson of this triple impasse, the diplomats decided to reshuffle the cards and build a new deal.

Three postulates guide the reflection:

• 1° Europe needs a foreign policy and an opening to the world, Turkey has it;
• 2° Europe is economically powerful, Turkey is not;
• 3° how to combine these advantages without the disadvantages, the existing and the innovative?

A solution then emerges:

• 1° Turkey does not join the EC.
• 2° Bilateral EU-Turkey agreements – like those signed with Switzerland – have been signed on certain points to strengthen socio-economic ties. A general agreement sets the terms of this cooperation.
• 3° A new pan-European structure is put in place;
• 4° it is inspired by the Euro-Mediterranean agreement, with two founding elements, the European Union on the one hand, Turkey on the other. The East and the West allied, to make compatible the Moslem and Orthodox philosophy, on the one hand, the Catholic and Protestant philosophy, on the other, and to extend the sphere of stability to all the neighbors.

A messianic vision that corresponds well to the principles of all these ancient empires that often went to war. Missions delegated to this structure: foreign policy, military policy, development policy, asylum and, possibly, immigration policy, inter-religious dialogue. A new political structure is put in place, original on the one hand — bipolar presidency divided into two, over five years, traditional parliamentary structure on the other: legal and administrative stewardship is ensured by the authorities already present at community level — Commission services, Court of Justice – sitting as a pan-European Court — etc.

A fiction ? Not so sure …

(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde)

(*) this article is part of a series of articles intended for publication in Europolitics around Europe in 2017