Aeronautical industry: watch out for stalls!
(BRUSSELS2) Stall warning! The call made by Claude-France Arnould, the director of the European Defense Agency, at the Berlin Air Show on Thursday (13 September) for urgent action in Europe in the field of future aeronautical systems (future air systems FAS), is equivalent to this "incidence alarm" - as the pilots say - which sounds in aircraft in the stall phase. " The European aeronautics industry is under threat ". Its underfunding has reached a critical level. “Important industrial capabilities are being eroded. Without additional concerted action, the situation will soon become critical for example for the development of future combat aircraft (conventional aircraft or UAV) and attack helicopters. »
For this, it relies on a study carried out by 30 of the largest European manufacturers (BAE, Eurocopter, Cassadian, Dassault, Westland, etc.). The industry today represents around 200.000 people, often with advanced technological capabilities, and has a turnover of 45 million euros. However, the slightest defense investment will force the industry to restructure with loss of skills as a result. The study shows that the risk of skill loss is particularly significant " and fast, " between now and 2020 ". According to the study, manufacturers are losing skills, month after month”. This has several consequences. First of all, in the near future, Europe will no longer have the capacity to produce certain equipment, such as " fighter planes ". When a skill and knowledge are lost, it is extremely difficult to recover them. Reforming new teams is extremely hard. And often the loss is permanent.
UAS: a market to seize... or not
The consequence is also very economical. In a competitive economy, Europe risks losing significant (market) share in the global competition for UAS capabilities », drones and other unmanned aerial systems. Already, it largely depends on the United States and the Israelis - are the two largest producers on the market - especially for systems and sub-systems. A monopoly that is not innate. " They knew how to invest in the past,” specifies John Mattiussi, expert analyst from the European Defense Agency, in an interview with B2. The market is important not only at the military level but also generally, for example for maritime surveillance, borders…” Thus if the impact of the operations in Afghanistan and Iraq played a decisive factor for this development in the United States, with a major interest - not to risk the lives of the soldiers (*); it is also identification as a market with a future that played a role. " And one can ask Where is Europe? » A Europe that has bet almost everything and is still betting on fighter planes. An area where "there is too much capacity" and a potential for restructuring. “We have 5 competent companies, which kill each other. But no one in the UAS market…”.
Serious shortcomings
The study identified more than 100 addictive factors, 12 of which have "big risks" : composite materials (production dominated by Japan and the United States); titanium (mostly from Russia); compound circuits; semiconductors; positioning and navigation technologies; encryption technologies; rare earths; UAS sensors; self-protection measures; broadband transmission/reception modules...; stealth abilities...
Buying off the shelf... not without risk
In these times of financial difficulties, the temptation can be great to make a "purchase off the shelves", therefore generally from American allies. But this solution is based on various unknowns which may be political, administrative or industrial. The US export control system can have consequences, including during operations, for example to have the necessary spare parts. Other " concrete example of what addiction produces he explains. For lack of a European supplier, it takes 72 months to have a new heavy Chinook helicopter. A situation that is not likely to improve in the future with the freezing of the Franco-German heavy helicopter project.
critical moment
“We are indeed at a critical moment” confirms John Mattiussi expert analyst from the European Defense Agency. " The effect will be felt in 3, 4, 5 years. And we will have significant difficulties to go up the slope. This is the last moment to react. Europe may no longer even be able to hope to become a subcontractor of the USA. " The United States can look to the Europeans as a partner; but if that partner no longer exists, or no longer has the skills, they will look elsewhere. Other actors — Russians, Koreans, Chinese, Indians, Brazilians… — seek to have a technological presence where the Europeans are letting their guard down. »
All is not lost
However, all is not lost. “In aeronautics or space, by being smarter, you can easily take the lead. Look at what happened to civil aviation. Before the arrival of Airbus, it was said that the battle was lost against Boeing. The market was dominated by American companies (three companies essentially). Today 2 of the 3 main US companies of the time have disappeared. Airbus has established itself as one of Boeing's main manufacturers and main competitor. Europe has changed the face of commercial aviation” by working together and reasoning in market logic.
« If we build civil and military synergies, we can trigger a big market. Today the current market is fragmented, and too limited. And there is a lack of money for research. But Europe has the potential to open up the market, which is significant. And there are research budgets that could be released (on the side of the European Commission). We would thus have the opposite of what happened in the past - where a military investment led to civilian applications -. Today, we would have a civilian investment leading to military applications. This reversal of the direction of research still needs to be accepted by European funders.
(*) Decisive criterion for Israel, with the aim of allowing discreet surveillance, saving the lives of fighter pilots as much as possible (rare resource on a human level) and requiring delicate recovery in the event of loss.