Elections 2019. A place of choice for the far right in the European Parliament

(B2) The extreme right (or national right) could emerge as one of the winners of the European elections in May. Without reaching a majority weight

The ENL Europe of Nations and Freedoms group could thus more than double its weight in the European Parliament, going from 37 seats today to about 80 seats (between 75 and 85 seats). This would propel him to fourth place among European political groups, trailing the European Liberals and Democrats.

Advances from multiple parties

The group benefits from a double phenomenon: on the one hand, an electoral push by several of its members, in particular the Lega North Italian and the Fleam's concern Belgian; on the other hand, the rallying of certain parties formerly in other groups such as the German AFD (which evolved from an anti-European party to a far-right party) or the Danish people's party, which became more radical. Some increases are significant at national level, for example in Finland or Estonia, but they do not produce major changes in terms of the number of seats. As for the French National Rally, its announced score above 20% should not mislead. It is in fact catching up with its 2014 level and a substantially equivalent number of deputies and could no longer be the leading French party in the European Parliament (1).

A group made up of several parties

This group would be dominated by the Italians and the French who should provide, between them, a good half of the workforce. In detail from the latest polls, this gives:

• Italian Northern League (± 32%, 23-24 seats)
• French National Rally (± 24%, 18-20 seats)
• German AFD (±13%, 12-13 seats) *
• Spanish Vox (±12%, 6 seats)
• Austrian FPÖ (±22%, 4-5 seats)
• UK UKIP (±5%, 3-4 seats)*
• True Finns (±18%, 2-3 seats) *
• Slovak SR and SNS (±10% and +8%, 2 seats)
• Danish People's Party (± 12%, 1 seat)
• Belgian Vlaams Belang (±8%, 1 seat)
• Dutch PVV (±6%, 1-2 seats)
• Czech SPD (± 6%, 1-2 seats)
• Bulgarian Volya (± 5%, 1 seat)
• Estonian EKRE (±19%, 1 seat)

* Member of the EFDD group they have joined or announced to join the ELN group

An Italian and not a French leader

Inside the group, a reversal of trends is taking place. In the current state of the polls, Marine Le Pen's French National Rally (ex. National Front) is losing its leading position to the benefit of the Lega North or Italian Northern League by Matteo Salvini. Which is not the least of the changes and could cause some gnashing of teeth in the long term.

Far right or national right

Contrary to what one might think, this group is not located at the extremity of the European chessboard. The term far-right can also be disputed in view of certain positions that are more related to the concept of "national right" or "sovereignty". Other parties are frankly extremist, or even can be described as neo-Nazis, like the Hungarian Jobbik or the Greek Golden Dawn, which will try to create a group of their own, but could fail (2).

A power of influence

This weight will not be sufficient to significantly influence European policy. But it will be important enough for certain European projects to have an effect of attraction on other Eurosceptic groups, even certain parties belonging to traditional groups such as Fidesz led by Viktor Orban (EPP) or the Polish PIS led by Jarosław Kaczyński (Conservatives). In particular on subjects such as immigration, the powers of the European Commission or European integration. It could have a delaying effect on certain European projects.

Reinforced means

More concretely, this progression will also give the new group greater resources, both in terms of the number of posts assigned to the group and financial resources or the use of the Parliament's logistical resources (conference rooms, etc.). This will be an appreciable lever for many of the parties that make it up and will have an additional attraction effect on small dispersed parties.

Greater political weight

It will also entitle him – if the improved proportional rule (known as the D'Hondt law) is respected – to key positions in Parliament such as the chairmanship of committees. It will simply be necessary to observe carefully whether the group uses the lever of parliamentary work more effectively than it has done so far. The possibility of obtaining one of the posts of vice-president of Parliament is more symbolic in terms of power, but it has the effect of maximum visibility, since the vice-presidents take turns chairing the plenary, and gives it the right to almost inexhaustible speech.

(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde)

1. One can remember that the group had lost over the exclusions or defections (in particular at 'the Patriots'), several of its members, who had left to sit in other groups.
2. Moreover, these parties are crumbling (Jobbik), downright losing momentum (Golden Dawn), or even won't win any seats according to current forecasts (Bulgarian BNS).

This paper belongs to a series of short analyzes on the evolution of political groups, read also:

• The Conservatives falling in the European Parliament?
• The green lift
• Elections 2019. What changes to expect?