(B2) The discussions at the European Council take on an alchemy that is just as much that of a club of leaders as of a political assembly, opposing political parties. Today, this alchemy seems difficult to achieve. And a certain premium for immobility exists. For what ?
The leaders (except a few) took their jackets off to be more relaxed (credit: Council of the EU - June 2018)
Developments within the Council are slower than appearance. They take place over the course of national elections, which counterbalance each other, and ultimately prevent any sudden shift. But they exist. It is interesting to observe them because they are so many concrete markers of the evolution of discussions or blockages.
Three-thirds equivalent in 2017
To feel the current evolution, it is necessary to see the pre-existing situation. Two years ago, at the beginning of 2017, the Council was made up of roughly equal thirds: 8 belong to the Christian Democrats of the EPP, 7 to the Liberals and Democrats of the ALDE, and 8 belong to the Social Democrats (PES) . It reflected a balance of 2/3 on the right and center and 1/3 on the left: 19 leaders can be assimilated to the right (ALDE, EPP and 2 conservatives and 2 independents who can be assimilated to them) and 8 leaders to the left (7 PSE and 1 Left).
The collapse of the social democrats
Two years later, at the beginning of 2019, this balance has undergone a certain evolution. The PES Social Democrats collapsed to 5 seats. They thus successively lost 4 posts (Austria, France, Czechia, Italy) to the benefit of the Liberals and Democrats (France, Czechia), the EPP (Austria), the Eurosceptics (Italy). The EPP lost one post to the PES (Spain), but regained one post occupied by an independent (Latvia). On the right and in the center, the two rival parties PPE and ALDE are tied, with 9 seats each.
A rebalancing in progress
The results of the last elections should not be misleading. The victory of the social democrats (Finland, Spain...) is rather synonymous with a certain rebalancing than with a reconquest or a revolution. This rise does not yet make it possible to find the position of 2017 and rather means a stop to the decline. As for the right, rebalancing is also the norm, the EPP regains a slight lead over the Liberals and Democrats.
The Franco-German-Spanish trio driving Europe
If we only take into account the six largest countries, which can weigh more in the European Council, this picture is different. Three are led by leaders concerned with deepening the European Union (Germany, France, Spain), three by leaders who act rather in the opposite direction (Italy, United Kingdom, Poland). Which clearly no longer gives to a couple, but to a Franco-German-Spanish trio, the task of being the 'engine' of Europe... or not. Because they do not belong to the same movement: one is led by a Christian Democrat (Germany), one by a centrist (France), one by a Social Democrat (Spain). This does not always facilitate agreements.
A bonus for immobility
Even among the so-called 'European' leaders, some are putting the brakes on any further push for European integration: the Christian Democrat Viktor Orban is among them, but the Dutchman Mark Rutte (liberal), the Dane Lars Løkke Rasmussen ( Liberal) or the Swede Stefan Löfven (social democrat) are quite reluctant to any further integration, at the political level as well as at the monetary level. It is another division, more geopolitical than partisan, which is superimposed on the classic divisions. A sort of bonus for immobility.
Chief editor of the B2 site. Graduated in European law from the University of Paris I Pantheon Sorbonne and listener to the 65th session of the IHEDN (Institut des Hautes Etudes de la Défense Nationale. Journalist since 1989, founded B2 - Bruxelles2 in 2008. EU/NATO correspondent in Brussels for Sud-Ouest (previously West-France and France-Soir).
One thought on “At the European Council, internal tensions, very political"
The partisan divisions of the (temporary) governments in place ultimately have little importance in view of the general weakening of traditional national political parties and the persistent diversity of national political cultures. In the European Council, the most relevant (but also shifting) division is effectively that of the different degrees of acceptance of the process of European integration.
The partisan divisions of the (temporary) governments in place ultimately have little importance in view of the general weakening of traditional national political parties and the persistent diversity of national political cultures. In the European Council, the most relevant (but also shifting) division is effectively that of the different degrees of acceptance of the process of European integration.