East AfricaBlog Analysis

The EU will continue to support the efforts of AMISOM. But not alone (maj)

The recapture of Mogadishu University by Ugandan soldiers (Credit: AMISOM)

(BRUSSELS2) The European Union has already provided 325 million euros to support the African Union Force for Somalia (Amisom), since 2007, according to figures provided by a European expert before the Somalia conference in London . This amount has accelerated in recent months. In 2011, more than 100 million euros were paid out. And 67 million have been committed up to July 2012. This is not the only European aid to Somalia: since 2008, the EU has paid 500 million euros for projects aimed at supporting development (education, governance, economy) and 210 million euros in humanitarian aid.

An essential contribution to pay salaries and logistics

The effort is substantial! Europe thus pays about 10 million euros per month now to the African Union for Amisom (about 130 million euros). " This is important because it creates an environment conducive to development explains a European official. This EU contribution provides troop salaries, logistics (transport, building, communications) and medical support. But not the equipment and weapons supplied by the Americans”, confirmed a European diplomat to B2.

And this sum could increase in the future. José-Manuel Barroso, the President of the European Commission officially confirmed this during his press briefing with the Somali Prime Minister today (Tuesday 21 February). " The EU stands ready to mobilize additional resources to enable an increase in the number of troops ". But the EU no longer wants to continue paying alone. “Our effort covers only part of the increased needs; I call on other donors and the international community to step up their aid” specified JM Barroso. If the figures are confirmed, this could represent around a 50% increase in subsidies for the EU. The Commission would like, in particular, that the Arab countries put a little more to the pot. " This will be the message we want to carry in London clarified an expert of the file to B2.

(maj) According to the information communicated to B2, this increase comes up against an internal difficulty within the European Union. Funds available under the African Peace Facility - which funds Amisom - would not be enough on their own. And it would be necessary to tap into other lines of the European Development Fund. This is the European Commission's proposal. However, this fund is not "communitized" (it is not included in the community budget). And some member states are reluctant to take this levy. They also refuse that the Union makes a firm commitment at the London conference on Thursday.

Time for optimism but...

This London conference opens on a note of optimism. " We are moving from an era of lawlessness and extremism to an era of peace and stability said Abdiweli Mohamed Ali, Somali Prime Minister, after his meeting at the European Commission. Optimism made possible by battles won on the ground. Under the combined weight of the offensive by the Kenyans in the South, by Ethiopia in the West, and the Burundian, Djiboutian and Ugandan contingents of AMISOM, reinforced by the first Somali soldiers trained and trained by the European Union, Al Shabab forces had to retreat first from Mogadishu and then from several towns in the country. The Kenyans are now targeting Kismayo, the port lung of Al Shabab, while the Ethiopians, aided by Somali forces, are targeting the district of Yeed, a key gateway to liberating the regions of Bay and Bakool.

« Al Shabab forces appear to be in retreat rejoices a European diplomat. A more measured observation, however, for European humanitarian aid officials who stress that many populations are still " under Al Shabab control "and that there still exists" several problems of access for humanitarian aid” in several places in the country. Moreover, the idea of ​​launching a process of DDR - disarmament, demobilization, reintegration - which is often the sign of an appeasement of the situation for the combatants of the Islamist militias, seems really premature in the eyes of observers. " Now is not the time. It will come one day I'm sure conceded to B2 a senior European diplomat.

The new AMISOM, augmented by Kenyan contingents

Map of Somalia with new Amisom sectors (Credit: UN/B2)

According to the draft prepared by the UN General Secretariat and the African Union, AMISOM's troop ceiling should increase from 12.000 (*) to 17.331 men. The UN plan also provides for the deployment of 260 police officers and 2 formed police units (FPU), responsible for maintaining order, each comprising 140 people.

This increase would be obtained in particular by incorporating the Kenyan contingents already present in the south of the country and currently leading the offensive against Al Shabab. A decision is expected from the Security Council on the subject. Discussion is underway in New York, particularly between European and international officials, to finance this increase.

The distribution of the troops would then be done as follows:

  • Sector 1: Banadir (Mogadishu) and Middle and Lower Shabelle: Burundian and Ugandan contingents, current strength (9 men).
  • Sector 2: Middle and lower Juba (Kismayo): Kenyan contingent, transferred? under the command of AMISOM (4 men).
  • Sector 3: Gedo, Bay and Bakool (Baidoa) and western part of Hiraan: remainder of Burundian and Ugandan contingents (2 men)
  • Sector 4: Galgudud, Mudug and part of the Hiraan region (Beledweyne): Djibouti contingent (1 men).

According to the United Nations plan, AMISOM should also be reinforced by certain means, particularly at the air (helicopters) and maritime (ships) level.

(*) A figure that has not yet been reached, it would rather be around slightly lower than 10.000 men.

Some tricky questions remain

There are still many sensitive issues for the international community. First of the "delicate" subjects, the status of Somaliland. This region of northern Somalia, fairly stable and spared from the latest troubles, declared its independence and did not participate in the last Garowe II conference which endorsed a process intended to consolidate the federal government: establishment of a constituent assembly - designated by the "elders" - and an upper house, representing the clans and regions, designation of a new government which will replace the transitional government by August. " It's up to the people of Somalia to decide. cautiously specifies a European diplomat. " We follow the position of the African Union he adds. " If the structure of the Somalia government and its financing become effective, the situation could be different he suggests, however. Another delicate subject: what to do with Ethiopia? This leads a decisive offensive, and has well-trained troops. But it does not seem to be integrated into the future Amisom. Third subject: the possible lifting of the arms embargo on Somalia. Requested mainly by the authorities of Puntland, it comes up against a number of difficulties. This point has not officially been discussed between Europeans and Somalis. “The moment doesn’t really seem ripe explained to B2 a European diplomat. Puntland is too involved in border disputes, especially with Somaliland, in a strategic area where there are many potential oil fields.

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Nicolas Gros Verheyde

Chief editor of the B2 site. Graduated in European law from the University of Paris I Pantheon Sorbonne and listener to the 65th session of the IHEDN (Institut des Hautes Etudes de la Défense Nationale. Journalist since 1989, founded B2 - Bruxelles2 in 2008. EU/NATO correspondent in Brussels for Sud-Ouest (previously West-France and France-Soir).

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