TFG, Eritrea, Al-Shabaab and other militias… the troublemakers in Somalia

(BRUSSELS2) Here is a thick, documented report that anyone with any interest in Somalia and the Horn of Africa should read carefully. Written by a committee of United Nations experts, responsible for following the resolutions on Somalia and Eritrea, it appears far from the language of wood, avatar of official reports, and puts the finger in the head on the perpetrators of trouble. The report indeed points to several causes of instability. Of course that of the Shabab (Islamic militias) but not only. The Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) takes it for its rank. And without detour. Particular mention is made of Eritrea as well, whose responsibility for the current instability in Somalia.

The main TFG responsible for the situation

The main obstacles to security and stabilization in southern Somalia lie in the lack of leadership of the TFG - the Somali Transitional Government -, its lack of vision and cohesion, its endemic corruption and the failure to advance the political process. . THE " attempts by the government to monopolize power and resources have aggravated frictions within the transitional institutions, impeded the transition process and undermined the war on Al-Shabaab »

The Islamists' war chest: around $100 million

Groups that keep their nuisance capacity thanks to significant resources. The group of experts estimates that they have an income of $70-100 million per year “coming from taxation and extortion in the areas under their control, in particular through the export of coal and border smuggling with Kenya. " Better ! " Many Somali entrepreneurs prefer dealing with the Shabaab, given the ongoing corruption and predatory practices at the TFG »

Private companies

The commitment of private security companies to deter pirates or ensure security on land is a " growing concern says the report. This commitment is made without a solid regulatory framework and the operating practices of many private security companies are " opaque  ". The report estimates that at least two of them committed " significant violations of the arms embargo, by equipping and training in an unauthorized manner Somali militias, one of which is involved in the trafficking of arms and drugs ».

The role of Eritrea

The involvement of the neighboring country represents a " small part of the overall but disturbing equation » with the key « dimportant special operations or intelligence activities, including training, logistical and financial support to armed opposition groups in Djibouti, Ethiopia (Nb: the enemy brother), Sudan and probably Uganda ". This involvement of Eritrea can only be understood in the context of its still unresolved border dispute with Ethiopia. Among the significant events, the report singles out the planning and execution of a failed attack on the African Union summit in Addis Ababa. A hidden war continues between Ethiopia and Eritrea; and it is Somalia that pays the price.

A security situation varying according to the regions

About half of the Somali territory is controlled by rather stable and responsible authorities who have demonstrated to varying degrees a certain capacity to provide peace and security to their populations. This is the case in Somaliland - where the authorities maintain security and stability, preserving their coast from pirate attacks - but also to some extent in Puntland, where the administration has " maintained relative peace and stability, although targeted assassinations peaked in major cities, and made some headway against piracy » ; the risk comes from the south where the militias of Mohamed Sa'iid Atom merged with those of Al-Shabaab. In central Somalia, embryonic authorities such as the state of Gaalmudug, Himan iyo Heeb or Ahlu Sunna wal Jama'a in the region also have a semblance of security.

Comment: this analysis confirms certain interviews with European officials on Somalia who seem tired of the position of the TFG and more inclined to maintain direct relations with the autonomous or semi-autonomous regions, even if the official language remains support for the TFG.

Read also:

• Presidential elections in Somaliland: hiccup for European diplomacy?
• An EU plenipotentiary received in an Eritrea closed to the world
• The EU wants to get more involved in the Horn of Africa
• For Javier Solana, the EU must support the "rule of law" in Somalia

Download the report of the United Nations experts: see B2 docs