Under budgetary constraints, the Hungarian army reflects on its future

(B2/ in Budapest) As Hungary takes over the presidency of the European Union, those in charge of its defense are thinking about the future of the Hungarian army. In the light of budgetary restrictions, more than ever, the top priority seems to be to be able to maintain a certain operational dimension to the armed forces. So to make drastic revisions of strategy.

According to a ministry document that I have seen, it seems impossible to procrastinate. The ambitions of the army of a "small" country like Hungary can no longer be global. The time has come for specialization, for the search for complementarities and pooling with European countries, in particular "small nations", which share the same concerns. A reflection that is fully in line with the philosophy released by the recent German-Swedish paper and the work of the European Defense Agency.

The complete transformation in 20 years towards a professional army

The Hungarian army has undergone a complete transformation over the past twenty years since the end of the communist period. In 1990, it was a conscription army, comprising about 125.000 people. Today it is a more professional force, of about 25.000 people. The decline was marked by several stages: the process of joining NATO, which became effective in 1999. The army then had 52.000 people. It's time for the strategic review of 1999. New review in 2002. The workforce increases to 37.000. In November 2004, the principle of the professional army was adopted. The army then numbers 31.000 people. A final revision took place in 2006.

For Gabor Szarka, Chief of Staff to the Minister of Defence, the starting point for this transformation was to introduce a different military culture. NATO criteria such as social expectations, "adequacy to domestic and foreign policy" of the country (in other words the change of strategic "block" of Hungary) accompanied this change. The new culture consisted of a "radical" increase in professionals, an increase in the time spent in international missions, a greater importance given to the knowledge of foreign languages ​​and to physical exercises for career progression. But this is not without drawbacks. " The mechanism of the voluntary-based system is under strain. Social integration in terms of competitiveness in the labor market is not "consolidated". The organization of the forces is subject to deficits, more or less great. The establishment of a reserve force has so far been neglected....”. But it is above all the economic question which seems to be the main concern, today, of Hungarian defense officials.

A professional, high-performance army: it's "expensive"

However, as summarized by Gabor Szarka, "having a small fully professional force is not the cheapest thing". If the military becomes more qualified, better educated, this is generally paid for by higher salaries. It is not only the development of the force but also the reduction in its size that is costly. "modernization of weapons and equipment adds additional costs". In addition, "keeping the current international missions is very expensive", and could be even more in the future. Hungary aims to have an "expeditionary" capacity of 2000 men.

To maintain a certain credibility, we need a more flexible, more multifunctional, more modular army. It is also necessary to take care not to lose too many professionals along the way, who leave for other horizons. By doing this, we lose"also a lot of experience".

A constrained budget

At the same time, the country's economic transition to a market economy has "limited the financial means of the armed forces” we recognize at the Ministry of Defense. The current budget today reaches 1,17% of GDP (i.e. approximately $1,5 billion, which is far from the 2% target set by NATO). In recent years it has not grown significantly. The will of the current government (Fidesz) is to "increase it, step by step, during this legislature".

Like many other countries, the share of staff costs (more than 40% of these costs) is too high. While the share devoted to international missions is not negligible: 10% of expenses. It is also a question of finding a “mechanism which would make it possible to allocate the available resources in a more efficient way”.

The Hungarian solution: reduction of ambition, specialization and pooling

Among the avenues for savings, the Hungarian Ministry of Defense wants to "rethink" the officer/soldier ratio as well as the internal composition of rank groups. It also intends to put in place a mechanism for constant monitoring of expenditure mechanisms. At the national level, the establishment of a functional reserve is also necessary. Without this, the "armed forces will not be able to fulfill all their obligations(see article on the Reserves). Finally, the military is also counting on the economic recovery to breathe some air into the defense budget.

That won't be enough. We must therefore be right. Instead of developing amulti-purpose force, of all times, and all theaters", the forces should specialize. This specialization must go hand in hand with the lessons of the current personnel shortages. Hungary cannot afford to "maintain a military force with a full rank of capabilities". The future system will go through the "development of mutual capacities between small nations".

NB: We can think that this rapprochement could be done first with neighboring countries such as Austria or Slovakia, which share a common history, or even Finland or Belgium which are of comparable size.

If this initiative were to see the light of day and materialize, there would thus be several circles of cooperation at European level. One formed by the two leading powers at the military level (France and United Kingdom); the other formed by the "middle" powers (Germany, Sweden, Poland...). Finally, one or more initiatives from the smaller countries. Interconnections and overlaps/synergies between these different initiatives are not prohibited.

NB: Of the 25.000 personnel in the Ministry of Defense today, officers constitute 20% of the force (5270), non-commissioned officers 30% (7350), conscripted soldiers 25% (6220, a figure down sharply since 2002). Civilians make up the rest, just over 25% (7180, a relatively stable figure since 2002).