[Analysis] Arctic sea: some updates. And the beginning of the serial novel…

(BRUXELLES2) The odyssey of the Arctic Sea, with on board what looks more like a band of nickel-plated feet than a team of organized "pirates", leaves one wondering. Everyone has their own versions. I don't have the official version or even the secret version, but a few elements of information and reflection.

This merchant navy ship flying the Maltese flag was attacked by pirates in the open Baltic Sea at the end of July (read: Summer Odyssey: The Arctic Sea, first episodes), then disappeared without a trace for several days, before being found near Cape Verde.

Some food for thought

1° The European Commission - which I questioned - persists and signs and sees nothing to change in its august statement. Yes there is a second attack off Portugal, after the one off Sweden ". And it's not about not a classic act of piracy”, according to the spokesperson for the Transport Commissioner (1).

To be sure, I asked a European expert to define what a "classic act of piracy" is. And here is the definition he gave me, specifying that all the elements were equally important: " 1° one villainous act, 2° to seize a ship and/or cargo or personnel, 3° with the intention of obtaining a financial advantage”. Even if the Commission refuses to comment on the ongoing investigation, conducted... by the Russian prosecutor's office, its version contradicts the current Russian declarations.

2° The two versions delivered in the press which are currently circulating: one of the Russians, with an attack by pirates with vaguely ecological motivations, the other with the intervention of the Mossad to stop a delivery of Sam S 300 missiles to Iran, are not convincing. They leave more questions unanswered than they answer. Who were the members of the first team? Why do the Swedes let it happen? Who were the members of the second team? When did the nickel-plated feet team come aboard the ship? Why has the ship's track been officially cut off? Why was the order to find the ship given with such solemnity? Why so many Russian resources mobilized in broad daylight? Why did it take so long to empty the boat of the "unofficial" equipment they contained (if any)? Etc...

3° Tarmo Kouts who is at the origin of the information on the Mossad is in fact above all an Estonian deputy, member of the party "Pro Patria and Res Publica" and author (with two other MEPs: Kurt Bodewig, Aristotelis Pavlidis) of a report on piracy for the Western European Union (WEU) (and not for the European Union). Former Head of State- major of the armies (until August 2006, with the rank of vice-admiral) and above all former head of the Estonian coast guard, this experience gives him a certain competence. European mission Statement clearly confirmed, both on the side of the European Commission and the European Union.

Some Important Facts

1° A first team sets foot on board the boat. She stays there for 12 hours. "Speaking English badly", they then disappear, vanishing into thin air. Without the Swedish or Finnish authorities (the boat belongs to a Finnish company and transports Finnish wood) reacting. If this version is real, it assumes that this team belongs to a country, if not a member of the NATO zone, at least very close to the Allies.

2° The vessel would never have been lost sight of by the maritime authorities of the various European countries, as shown by the information communicated by the European Commission, at the end of August, mentioning an attack off Portugal. Information drawn from a good source, apparently directly from the maritime surveillance services of the countries concerned. The "disappearance" of the ship after crossing the Channel and reporting it to Cross de Brest (France) would then be a "feint". But to escape from whom?

3° Kaliningrad would have been the port of embarkation of the "contraband" material (Sam weapons according to the latest information communicated to Iran). A boarding carried out by the Russian mafia. Alone ? It hardly seems possible. Given the configuration of Kaliningrad. It seems certain that at least one of the Russian security services was not involved in the operation, or at least aware of it.

There the facts end and the novel begins. Or rather novels. As I also like spy or detective novels, here are some ideas for authors in need of imagination.

A few lines of interpretation

First track: a divergence within the Russian security apparatus. Part of "services" supports the export of prohibited products. Another tries to torpedo her. Hence the two collisions. And Medvedev's decision to send, in the most solemn way, the warships, rings a clear message: you will come up against us if you continue.

Second track: the contract with Iran. Russia is determined not to deliver the Sam missiles to Iran. But it is more or less bound by the supply contract. What is needed is to respect the contract. But don't deliver. The impediment must be sufficiently public to suggest that the contract has been respected.

Third track: the intervention of an allied service. The first attack - off Sweden - is carried out by an allied service (the Mossad... or rather another). This is to send a clear warning to the Russians that they are taking charge of the matter: the boat is under surveillance. We know what he's carrying. Now take care of the matter, and to the highest peak in the state.

Fourth track: the intervention of a Russian service. The second attack, off Portugal, is carried out by the "loyalist" Russian services with the task of leading the boat out of the major international circuits. Giving sufficient time to Russian ships and air assets to "position themselves".

Series to follow...

(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde)

1. Maritime piracy issues at the European Commission fall primarily within the competence of the Commissioner for Transport. A regulation of March 31, 2004 on maritime security prescribes certain measures to prevent terrorism and piracy in particular.

Read also:

• Arctic Sea: the Commission sees no flaw in maritime security
• End of the arctic sea odyssey
• Disappearance of the Arctic Sea: not an act of piracy but so what?
• Summer Odyssey: The Arctic Sea, first episodes

Updated on the form to clarify the different elements