Franco Frattini candidate as High Representative with Carl, Jaap and the others

(BRUSSELS2) The game of candidacies and rotating chairs has begun. As the presidency of the European Parliament - devolved to a member of the majority party, the EPP - risks escaping the Italians and could benefit the Poles Jerzy Buzek - supported at the same time by several Central European countries, France and Germany... (which is a lot); the Italian could withdraw his candidacy (It's more elegant than suffering a defeat).

What does this have to do with the post of High Representative? Quite simply because, in exchange, the President of the Italian Council, Silvio Berlusconi, claims this post for his Minister of Foreign Affairs, Franco Frattini, former European Commissioner for Justice and the Interior, even within a year the presidency of the Eurogroup for his Minister of Finance, Giulio Tremonti. The Poles are quite willing to support this Italian candidacy (for the post of High Representative) which clears the way for their colt. Likewise, that they are prepared to no longer claim the post of Commissioner for the Internal Market, to obtain the support of France (which is officially hoping for this post). You follow ?

However, the Italian's candidacy for the post of High Representative is not certain. Because the post of High Representative is also coveted by (non)candidates who are just as serious (I dare say more serious):

• - by the Swedes, Carl Bildt, current Minister of Foreign Affairs (conservative): his candidacy has been a little "weighed down" by recent positions, not very "diplomatic", in particular in favor of enlargement to Turkey, little appreciated in several capitals, in particular in Paris and The Hague. The person concerned confirmed that he was not a candidate: "too busy".
• - Dutch, Jaap De Hoop Scheffer, former Secretary General of NATO, former Minister of Foreign Affairs CDA (Christian Democrat): "not a candidate at all" but available.
• - even the French, Michel Barnier or Bernard Kouchner...: "it is too early"Or"Finally, what an idea".

And more to come! The Belgians, for example, candidates for nothing, but always ready to help "if necessary", have one or two "good" candidates in reserve: Louis Michel or Guy Verhofstadt, for example (in Belgian political logic, it would be more the Flemish than the Walloon who could win the bet). Note that the Finns, tempted by the post for a moment, hung up the apron. Olli Rehn would rather aim for a post of "development" commissioner, according to Helsinki.

A Spaniard at the head of Europe?

On the side of the future Presidency of the European Council, new post created by the Treaty of Lisbon, Silvio Berlusconi - never stingy with statements, even contradictory ones - announced that it supports the candidacy of Tony Blair (the former British Prime Minister) for the presidency of the EU, in order to guarantee British support in return for his claims. But, just in case..., he kept a pear for the thirst with an Italian candidacy for the post of President of the Council of the EU, in the person of Giuliano d'Amato, former President of the Council (Socialist). Are you still following? ...

The candidacy which is popular at the moment would however rather be sought from the side of the Spanish socialist Felipe Gonzalez. His compatriot, Javier Solana, the current High Representative, on Monday, in front of a few journalists, departed from his traditional reserve, to estimate that Gonzalez had "theenergy and ability to do this". A statement that goes in the direction of political momentum. At the last European summit, Friday in Brussels, French President Nicolas Sarkozy refused to confirm his support for the candidacy of Tony Blair.

A surprising silence when you know that he did not hesitate before to quote this candidacy as "the best" for the position. And the definition he made of the position does not really militate in favor of the Briton. « If we have Lisbon, the first stable president for two and a half years of Europe, it is a choice that will speak extremely loudly. His nationality, will he be from a small or a large country, his experience, his European commitment, his political family? » explained Sarkozy.

Is it the thrashing suffered by the Labor Party, or the financial crisis, which no longer really militates for the British candidacy; in any case, that of the Spaniard has its own logic. Spain will be the first country, after the (presumed) entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty, to have to give up its presidency of the Council of the European Union. It would be right for the first President to be Spanish. At least for the two and a half years of the first mandate. For the next term, nothing prevents another candidate, including Tony Blair...

A balance to be sought between large and small countries

Let us detail the criteria given by Sarkozy for the next distribution:  "All this will have to be built within the framework of a balance: President of the Commission - if it is Mr. Barroso, a rather small country, without undermining Portugal – the High Representative, Vice-President of the Commission and the President of the Council. All this is
discuss. (...) What I want is for there to be an overall agreement at that time, you see, a balance. A political family will not be able to have all the positions, it is not possible, it is not reasonable »

In this spirit, the posts of High Representative and President of the European Council would be divided between the "liberal" and "socialist" political families., and at least one of these positions would come from a large country. It is particularly with these criteria in mind that the list of candidates for the post of High Representative must be reviewed.