Terrorism. A hesitant Latvian EU presidency and sidelined itself

(BRUSSELS2) Faced with the attack in Paris against Charlie Hebdo, Latvia, which is beginning its first presidency of the European Union, today in Riga, was a bit timid, in my opinion. Despite an obvious good will, she procrastinated, made some blunders, and ultimately failed to find the right tone and sense of initiative in the face of events unfolding in Paris.

First step: hesitation. It is Wednesday (January 7), the tragic events in Paris have already been known for several hours. It's time for a first informal meeting with the international press (including B2) who have come to cover the inauguration of the Latvian presidency. Foreign Minister Edgar Rinkevics prefers to begin his remarks to journalists with a long list of the priorities of the Latvian presidency: growth and employment (the Euro Zone), digital Europe, and the Eastern partnership. Not a word about terrorism, not a word about what happened in Paris. It will take a question from a reporter. While everyone knows, already foresees, that this event will upset the situation at European level. Error of assessment.

It is not the minister's fault for being warned. By chance, I take the same elevator as him. He has in hand the reaction published by his ministry. In a few seconds, I explain to him that it is not just 2-3 people from a newspaper who are affected, but the entire press as a whole. He seems incredulous... I haven't convinced him.

Step two: error in judgment. It comes, this time, from the Prime Minister, Laimdota Straujuma. And is otherwise more serious. In an exchange with journalists, the head of government mixes the fight against terrorism, a new strategy on immigration (legal or illegal), speaks of "clash of religions" " that fortunately in Latvia we do not have ". Of course, what happens in France is somewhat the fault of immigration. This reveals both a certain ignorance of the European reality but also of the dangers of this (new) terrorism, coming from within society. The journalists present, sympathetic, will raise little. A political faux pas. (*)

Third stage: indecision. This is undoubtedly the most serious element. Because it comes under the specific competence of a presidency of the European Union. While its leaders have been questioned on several occasions to find out what reaction to take at European level, if an extraordinary ministerial meeting for the Interior is not necessary, if the timetable should not be upset, nothing will be said except the recovery of common places. “Ministers of the Interior will discuss this at their next informal meeting in Riga at the end of January. will be the simple guideline. That is to say very late and above all not very risky since the meeting has been scheduled for a long time on the agendas. Finally, it is the French minister, B. Cazeneuve, who will decide with the other European authorities (European Commission, anti-terrorist coordinator) to convene a meeting in Paris. And President Hollande to invite the main heads of state and government to participate.

Why this deliberate offside?

There should be no negative intent. The EU presidency is a first for Latvia, which has no experience in this area. His Latvian coalition government, which brings together Liberals, Christian Democrats, Greens and nationalists, holds the presidency of the EU for the first time, and fears above all deviations, any error which, at the national level, could be fatal to him. He is therefore afraid of upsetting the calendar, prepared over many months, designed with great care, and which reveals a very delicate balance between national and European priorities.

This is not a sign of disinterest in external matters either. The Latvians are thus very interested in opening up to Africa. They have included development issues (in Africa) on their agenda. The Minister of Togo was moreover the guest of honor of Foreign Affairs, the very morning of the inauguration. And in the Central African Republic, when the Europeans decided to intervene in an operation initiated by France (EUFOR RCA), the Latvians responded very quickly, with a sizeable contingent (40 men). " The strongest commitment in external operations of the year, Defense Minister Raimonds Vejonis told us. " Out of solidarity ».

An obsession: Russia

But Latvia has an important priority - its eastern neighborhood - and a threat - Russia - which is not just theoretical. It is an inner and outer reality. The subject obsesses him (no doubt rightly so) and interferes with any alternative reflection. Moscow's aggressive positioning in Georgia first (in 2008), in Ukraine today, its powerful "propaganda" tools, which can find echoes and relays inside the country - Latvia has a strong Russian-speaking minority — is not a fiction. What frightens the most is the apparent irrationality of the neighbor, the former "occupier" of the country. " We need a "predictable" Russia confides the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Edgars Rinkevics, not without reason. "The terrorists are the Russians" another member of the government confides to me.

A psychological block

The Latvian Presidency of the EU is therefore very afraid that European political attention will shift from the East to other horizons, particularly to the South. " It takes a balance ". Riga also fears being excluded from the ongoing negotiations with Moscow, led mainly by Berlin and Paris, and seeing European determination erode over time and the European sanctions imposed on Russia called into question. Hence this blockage which is more psychological than political.

(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde, back from Riga)

(*) The next day (Thursday, January 8), new clumsiness in front of the press. Wanting to pay tribute to the victims of the ceremony, during his joint press conference with JC Juncker, L. Straujuma proclaimed a minute of silence... but ended it after barely a few seconds. She then surprised a good part of the room which had just risen in homage, to immediately return to the "important" subjects: the inauguration of the Latvian presidency. A lack of taste... The press conference will also be rushed, with just 3 questions. The Prime Minister will make up for it, in the evening during an official ceremony, with a more solemn minute, and a more appropriate message (read here).