Ukraine, object of a “hostile” Russian takeover? Comments

(BRUSSELS2) The will of Moscow, the government of kyiv, and the West…

A deliberate Russian will. These skirmishes this weekend (read: Skirmishes in eastern Ukraine. Kyiv reacts) will not surprise those who follow the situation in Ukraine. Moscow has never made a secret of its intentions. The strategic objective is clear: not to let Ukraine move too independently and above all to attach itself too clearly to the Western camp. The means, threats and sanctions do not matter. This is for Russia – or so it feels – a vital question. And this is the big difference with Westerners (Americans and Europeans) for whom Ukraine is, above all, a matter of principle (democracy does not discuss) and posture (not letting Moscow do its thing).

A dilemma for Kiev. The new government in kyiv finds itself, in fact, faced with a dilemma: not reacting (by force) means fueling comments about its incapacity – in fact quite real (we saw it in Crimea) – to deal with the situation. To react is to take the risk of aggravation and escalation. In fact, Ukraine is the subject of a formal attack from Moscow, not head-on, but biased, like a hostile takeover bid, from one company to another. on the stock market.

An evolving tactic. Tactics thus evolve as events unfold. We can have the impression of being tossed around according to events. It is reality. We are on a battlefield where the strategist decides, given the situation on the ground, to advance this or that pawn. After Crimea, annexed in a lightning operation, the time has come for the destabilization of Ukraine. Starting with the cities located furthest to the East. Then normally it should reach the southern edge. Our reporter Loreline Merelle returns from Odessa. And we are already seeing the first signs of a hardening of the situation on the spot, with an entrenched pro-Russian camp in the city.

All means are allowed. We could think of it the hard way. Other, more insidious means are possible. Demonstrative actions – a demonstration that gets out of hand, the storming of city buildings, etc. – are all attempts at destabilization, for the moment quite peaceful. But other means can be used. Not the intervention of the Russian army (this is the last resort if all other means have failed). But we can think of a few small “terrorist” explosions here and there, which could not only target Ukrainian targets but Russian or foreign targets. Like a well-organized provocation. Even acts reminiscent of neo-Nazis, relayed by organizations such as “Pravy Sektor” or others that could emerge (we will have to wonder one day about their role, their links and their financing… for whom do they ride? ?). The intense propaganda game is also important.

Westerners in the cabbage. Faced with this, Europeans and Americans each time seem disconcerted and surprised. The European response is, to say the least, muddled. We get active, we talk a lot. We sanction a little bit, symbolically. NATO screams like a startled virgin. Washington rolls its eyes. The OSCE deploys a few observers with a confusing and almost useless role. Everyone is in their role. And we leave slowly for 1 or 2 more weeks of crisis.

clouds of smoke. The Russian game looks confusing, when in reality it is quite simple. The “bad” Putin defends eternal Russia, Ukraine tied to Moscow, threatens to cut off gas, etc. In this, he flatters the Russian ego. And believing that it is isolated is another illusion. “Putin’s” decisions are decisions of a collective, of a sort of eternal Russia. On the front, the “nice” Sergei Lavrov, the head of Russian diplomacy, is responsible for coaxing, smoothing out the corners, rubbing balm on the wounds, to reassure his interlocutors… and to save time. The date is set: May 25. On that date, before (if possible) or after (if not), Ukraine must become ungovernable.

The best ally of the Russians: the political and economic context. The ambient disorder is complemented by a paroxysmal economic crisis. Inflation is already galloping. And it could get even worse. The gas embargo or the increase in its price should not play a favorable role. So many factors which can accelerate the feeling among the population that, decidedly, this “democratic” government is not worth “ no better than the previous ones ". Which should add to the tensions...

For Europeans, the stakes are also high. It is about not getting caught up in a game of escalation on both sides, between Moscow, on the one hand, kyiv and Washington on the other, which could lead to a new separation from the European continent. And also cause additional economic shocks at a time when the continent is still recovering from the last economic and financial crisis.

(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde)

(*) The “current events” part – which appeared in the original article at the top of this article – has been reported in a separate article – Skirmishes in eastern Ukraine. Kyiv reacts