Blog AnalysisEU Defense (Doctrine)

[Analysis] Against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, European solidarity plays out. National interests too!

Slovenia – Piran Lighthouse (Photo: Slovenian Ministry of Infrastructure)

(B2) The war in Ukraine was a wake-up call, saving for many states. They have initiated the modernization of their army… Benefiting from European solidarity. A return on investment, at some point, may be necessary. The debate is open.

A gesture of solidarity

Since February 2022, and the start of the second Russian intervention in Ukraine (the first being in 2014), several countries, especially in the East of the continent, have very quickly sent their equipment of Soviet origin to Ukraine. A gesture underpinned by real political will and a principle of effectiveness. We might as well equip Ukrainians with robust, tested and immediately usable equipment, rather than with equipment that is certainly more modern, but which requires a certain appropriation at both a human and technological level (1).

A great opportunity for some people

For many Eastern armies, equipped with old, aging and, in part, obsolete equipment, these “ donations » were also an excellent opportunity to get rid of certain old equipment (without even having to ask the question of recycling it) and to renew national equipment. With a vital challenge: to modernize their army and adopt a new, more NATO standard for their equipment.

Those who finance

A process that is all the easier to accomplish because - in addition to being dictated by circumstances - a good part of this effort is financed by others: Americans in particular, but also Europeans, in particular by the biggest contributors to the 'European Union.

The " quartet » of the EU (Germany, France, Italy, Spain) thus provides two thirds of the financing (64%) of the European Peace Facility, the preferred European financing instrument for military support (2). That is 2,3 billion euros, out of the effort already committed and nearly 3,6 billion in total if the current projects are approved (3).

While the Baltic countries participate minimally in this European solidarity effort. Between them, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia contribute 0,6% of the overall effort. That's barely 28 million euros in contribution (out of the 3,6 billion already committed)! Less than Greece, for example (€45 million).

Those who benefit

La Poland which has started re-equipment at high speed with equipment from outside the EU in part (US Abrams tanks, South Korean K2 tanks and K-9 howitzers, F-35 aircraft, etc.) is one of the countries which has provided the most military assistance (with Germany, around 2,43 billion euros according to the Kiel Institute) and will be the biggest beneficiary of this European funding: ± 900 million €, according to an initial assessment. But Warsaw was carefully the figure

La Lithuania which has provided, in ratio to its GDP, an enormous effort to support Ukraine – more than €400 million according to the official figure – will see just half of this effort covered by the other Europeans. All for a minimal contribution to the general effort, around ten million euros. If we compare the contribution made to the pot and the expected return: Vilnius receives around twenty times more from European solidarity!

La Slovakia, according to the admission of his Prime Minister (read: Poland and Slovakia equip Ukrainian forces with Mig-29s), must receive around $700 million in US-made compensation and €900 million in total (or around 250 million euros). This is almost half of its defense budget for 2022! (4).

Behind big words, national interests clearly understood

The European Peace Facility — with its reimbursements for old equipment (covered on average at 50-60% of the declared value) — has thus become a key instrument for the modernization of European armies. This without any condition of European preference.

It is therefore not entirely abnormal - as requested by France, but also Belgium, Greece and other countries - that certain conditions of “return on investment” for the industry are weighed European. What the ambassadors have been debating for several days in order to encourage the joint purchase of ammunition (read: [Confidential] Where is the ammunition debate? The discussion continues between ambassadors). Germany and France in particular cannot continue to finance, without conditions, the modernization of the armies without return.

Some countries (Baltics and Poles in particular) would, on the other hand, like the financing tap to continue to flow without conditions. An urgent question, of life and death for Ukraine facing Russia, they forcefully argue (5). But what Vilnius, Tallinn or Warsaw forget to say is that European military support has also become vital for their own military budget and their army modernization policy.

(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde)

  1. The first tanks to arrive on the spot were thus of the Soviet type T-72 or T-64 type, before the Western type tanks (Leopard in particular) on which the Ukrainians were trained arrived. Idem for fighter planes. The arriving Mig 29s will allow Ukraine to urgently fill the void, while training on new Western-type aircraft (F-18 or Mirage) takes place.
  2. This Facility, placed outside the Community budget, is financed according to the same principle: a compulsory contribution fixed according to the share in the European gross net income (GNI) of each country.
  3. €3,6 billion already committed under the seven tranches already decided for military support to Ukraine + an additional €2 billion have been put on the table in the latest proposal from the EU High Representative (Read: [Decryption] And one. And two billion to supply shells to the Ukraine. The 27 almost agree).
  4. Around 2 billion in 2022 according to NATO forecast statistics for 2022.
  5. Countries that have very active public diplomacy. So when a “European” diplomat, under cover of anonymity, is quoted in the media, to do more, you can be sure: it is a Lithuanian or a Pole, or even an Estonian .

Nicolas Gros Verheyde

Chief editor of the B2 site. Graduated in European law from the University of Paris I Pantheon Sorbonne and listener to the 65th session of the IHEDN (Institut des Hautes Etudes de la Défense Nationale. Journalist since 1989, founded B2 - Bruxelles2 in 2008. EU/NATO correspondent in Brussels for Sud-Ouest (previously West-France and France-Soir).

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