[Editorial] A year of war in Ukraine. A paradigm shift for Europe
(B2) For a year now, the Russian war in Ukraine has already upset European politics. An evolution that will continue over the next few years and could lead to a major and structural transformation of the current Union. A few things to think about.
- At a time when everyone is looking at the immediate consequences of war on the ground or on the economy, we must look a little further. For almost 15 years, B2 has chosen to focus its attention on defense and geopolitics. At the time, we were regarded with some sympathy by defense specialists (focused on their nation) as well as by Europeans (focused on the “real” areas of European competence). Today is very different...
A question in all areas
The subject of “Ukraine” is systematically placed on the agenda of meetings of Foreign Ministers and Heads of State and Government. But the question is transversal. Today, in the Council of the EU, there is not a single sector, not a single one of some 150 working groups, even those furthest removed from foreign policy, which does not have the Ukraine question on its agenda. Whether telecoms (with the extension of roaming to Ukrainians), culture (with the question of the protection of cultural heritage or artists in danger), the economy and finance (for questions of macro-financial loans) or transport (with the extension of trans -Europeans in Ukraine and Moldova), all European experts must deal with the Ukraine question, whether it concerns action on the spot or in relation to the war or its domestic consequences.
European political defense
Defense is becoming, willingly or by force, a mixed European policy (both Community and intergovernmental). Without a Treaty line change. Which is, in itself, not insignificant in European history. Even the question of establishing a central purchasing office at European level and funding for sending ammunition to Ukraine, on a massive scale, and replenishing ammunition stocks, is now being tackled head-on (read: [Confidential] Ammunition. Looking for a practical and concrete solution by the end of March?).
No question is more taboo
The principle is no longer to hide behind a legal or financial impossibility (as in the 2010s when all the arguments were good for not intervening). The principle becomes: how to do it, by circumventing the existing obstacles, to do it anyway. It's time to " pragmatism recently summed up an ambassador. With reason. The terms “European sovereignty” or “strategic autonomy” which previously sparked epic battles are accepted. The question becomes: how do we apply these terms concretely?
An ideological convergence
Even if some personal rivalries may arise, between the Belgian liberal Charles Michel the President of the European Council, the German Christian Democrat Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, the French liberal Thierry Breton, the European Commissioner responsible for Industry and Defence, and the Spanish socialist Josep Borrell, the head of European diplomacy, the "heart" of Europe converges on one point: defense is essential, European strategic autonomy and sovereignty must be reinforced. At Member State level, the differences are deeper, but this objective is fairly shared. The nuances are mainly on the implementation.
A budget at 2%
Defense, previously considered a European “non-political”, represents approximately 2% of the European budget (€25 billion) over the multi-annual period 2021-2027 according to our calculations (1). Either simply the target defined by NATO for the expenditure of its member states (read: What a spending target for NATO Allies. The debate has begun). And if you add the other sovereign tasks (foreign policy, enlargement, security, borders, migration, etc.), this represents 13% of the European budget (nearly 160 billion euros) (2).
... growing exponentially
And this budget is growing. Without much difficulty (because a few months of debate on a European scale are not so important), the 27 decided in December to add two billion immediately to the European Peace Facility, and a further 3,5 billion potential ( read : [Alert] Ceiling increase approved). The European Commission has scraped the bottom of the drawer to allocate 500 million euros more to a new defense fund (intended for joint acquisitions, EDIRPA). And another fund (EDIP) must see the light of day which is not yet financed. For the next budgetary framework 2028-2035, these amounts will not decrease beforehand, but rather increase. This means that other policies (agricultural or regional) will be punctured. Except to find new resources… Which is far from obvious.
A changing Europe
The status of candidate country granted to Ukraine (and Moldova) in record time should not mislead us either. Even if it is a very political gesture — showing European solidarity — the process of enlargement of the European Union has resumed rapidly. kyiv and Chisinau, the two capitals concerned, have tackled the problem head-on. And with the enthusiasm of neophytes, they throw themselves headlong into bringing their legislation into conformity with European standards. In the midst of the conflict, the Ukrainian government and the Rada (the national parliament) therefore adopted law after law. Including on subjects far removed from the conflict (eg on the recognition of civil and commercial judgments). So much so that the objective set by Ukrainian President V. Zelensky to see the opening of accession negotiations by the end of 2023 (read: [Story] Zelenksy in Brussels: a successful one-man show?), or early 2024, is no longer entirely utopian.
… towards a Europe of 35 or 36 members?
In addition, discreet negotiations are underway between Belgrade and Pristina, aimed at normalizing relations between the two capitals, and therefore between the two countries (read: [Exclusive] The ten key points of the normalization agreement between Belgrade and Pristina presented to the 27). If they are successful, the road to Serbia's accession no longer has any major political obstacle. Nine countries are in the European waiting room. And some are determined to return. Europe at 35-36 is therefore no longer a theory. But a possibility for which the “old” European countries must be prepared. The European Union is changing in nature and therefore in functioning.
Conclusion: a Europe in transformation
For the second time in its short history, European integration is not sure where it is going. But she is going. Like the Europe of 2004 (after the big bang enlargement to the East) no longer quite resembled the Europe of 1989, the Union of 2035 will therefore not quite be that of 2020. We are betting on it: the ongoing European transformation n is neither minor nor cyclical. All policies will be impacted tomorrow by these changes.
The world is also evolving at high speed, with the reconstitution of a bloc of Non-Aligned (the global south), a questioned multilateralism. " We enter a new world confided to me an ambassador recently.
Anyone who claims to follow European affairs today, without taking a look at these major developments in defense and diplomacy, is making a singular mistake. It's like navigating in the middle of a storm, without sextant or GPS and without making sure of life jackets... Designed to give reading keys, information tools, B2 will continue to support this development. By also evolving and transforming in its own way.
Read also: [Analysis] These ten months that have changed European defence. Without his knowledge, of his own free will
- Included are the defense fund, military mobility, the CFSP budget (essentially CSDP missions) from the Community budget and the European Peace Facility (with the ceiling increases decided in December) which is outside the budget but funded by a compulsory budget from the Member States. This does not include either the forthcoming EDIP or the expenditure for the various EU military structures (General Staff, defense agency, satellite center etc.) which exceeds €80 million per year (i.e. half a billion on the period).
- This covers internal security, borders, foreign policy including enlargement, civil protection, etc. Other civil but dual-use budgets are not included, such as Horizon 2020 (Research), ITER (nuclear research), or support for the Turkish Cypriot community (which depends on the Regions budget), etc.