Between France and Australia, the cold will last
(B2) The AUKUS case will leave its mark. If with Washington, and to a lesser extent with London, the path of normalization seems acquired, Paris seems determined to make Canberra pay for its betrayal..
On September 15, the Australian government broke the contract for the supply of submarines by France (and Naval Group). And signed a defense partnership agreement with the United States and the United Kingdom (AUKUS) in stride. Without any notice. An act that is always difficult to pass in the French ranks.
A grudge against Australia
With the United States, one cannot be angry for long and relations have clearly resumed. With the UK, finding the path to reconciliation will take a bit longer,” but there are geopolitical realities that cannot be ignored: the English coast is only 25 km from Calais. With Australia, on the other hand, it is something else… ". A French officer, well introduced to the circle of power, summarizes for B2 the state of play after AUKUS. And most importantly, don't quite finish your sentence. But we understand that it will be very complicated and that it may last a long time. It should be noted that this statement was made before the G20 meeting which saw a new exchange of "sweet words" between Paris and Canberra (see box).
Maritime cooperation with Australia
A statement that is not isolated. Admiral Pierre Vandier, Chief of Staff of the French Navy, had confirmed it a few days earlier (mid-October) during a hearing at the National Assembly: the freezing of cooperation is underway. " The Australian officer who joined my staff will leave his post next summer and will not be replaced. In addition, we have suspended the cooperation of our submarine forces with Australia. Finally, we canceled the deployment of an Australian cadet for the Joan of Arc 2022 campaign, as well as the sending of a former nuclear submarine commander to the Australian Military Academy. »
... scaled down minima
Only " some cooperations will remain, continues Admiral Pierre Vandier. " We will keep the stopover points that we share with Australia to supply the Antarctic base of Dumont d'Urville. We will also have the opportunity to meet the Australians during multinational exercises in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific. »
The enemy is not Australia but China
The head of the navy, however, wanted to add as a warning to an overly political desire to deepen divisions. " Let's not mistake the enemy “, abjured the sailor. He was referring to the attack on Mers-el-Kébir in 1940 by the Royal Navy against French ships moored in the Algerian military port (1). " AUKUS should be approached with the same caution ". And to concretely target China like North Korea, in the midst of an expansion phase.
The Chinese naval awakening... and others
« Today we are witnessing the Chinese naval awakening. China launches the equivalent of our national fleet every three years. [...] The commissioning of the third Chinese aircraft carrier is scheduled for 2025. [...] The simple Chinese coastguard patrol boats are in fact real first class frigates. Boats of 10.000 tons – larger than our frigates of the same format –, armed with cannons […] and authorized to open fire since the modification of the naval law. “South Korea, too, is undertaking” major naval operations ". Koreans are not alone. " We are seeing significant growth rates of the Japanese, Indonesian, Korean, Australian and Indian navies ". India is " supposed to put fourteen frigates on hold between 2021 and 2030 [and] in the process of testing its latest aircraft carrier, which is intended to embark Rafale marine. ".
In fact, the whole Indo-Pacific zone is on fire: " Global naval [level] rearmament is unprecedented for thirty years »
NB: We therefore understand the American determination to be very present in the area, as well as the European desire not to be forgotten by history. The issue of the extension of maritime areas of European interest is thus on the agenda of the next meeting of Defense Ministers (see our confidential article).
(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde)
The Australian Prime Minister lied!
Emmanuel Macron was interviewed by Bevan Shields, an Australian journalist from Sydney Morning Herald, on the sidelines of the G20 to find out if he thought Scott Morrison, the Australian prime minister, had lied. The Frenchman replied directly: I don't think, I know » . Either: I don't think so, I know it. Above all, the French president refused to mention the return of confidence: " We talk, we'll see what he will do ". A sign of his cold anger. And to add to the address of Australia: I have a lot of respect for your country and a lot of respect and friendship for your people. I'm just saying that when we have respect, you have to be true and you have to behave in accordance with that value. »
Australia responds Tuesday with the leak in the local press of an SMS from Emmanuel Macron addressed to Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison. " Should I expect good or bad news for our joint submarine ambition? “, wrote the French president to him on September 13, two days before the affair broke out, while the Australian leader sought to join him. Proof according to Canberra that Macron knew. NB: I would rather say that it is the ultimate proof that Macron did not know. And that Australia did it the latest to inform the French.
(NGV)
Read also: The AUKUS agreement between Australia and the USA provokes the Europeans. What possible reactions?
- This attack carried out between July 3 and 6, 1940 by the British (planes and navy) caused nearly 1300 deaths on the French side and put several ships out of action. It is considered a betrayal of the Franco-British alliance on the French side. A perfectly justified attack for London, by the signing of the armistice by Philippe Pétain, the establishment of collaboration with Germany, and the refusal of the French government at the time to put its ships out of reach of the Germans .
