The French presidency of the EU hit hard by an electoral accident
(B2) France must assume its presidency of the EU in the first half of 2022. Problem: the presidential and legislative elections must be held over the same period. French President Emmanuel Macron, however, refused to switch to another Member State as is customary in this case. He could bite his fingers...
The worst time for a presidency
The French presidency of the EU, which is due to start on January 1 and end on June 30, 2022 at midnight, could be stopped dead in the middle of the race. The first round of presidential elections is due to be held on April 10 and the second round on April 26. That is to say just when a European presidency begins to run at full speed. Before, it will be the electoral campaign which will run at full speed. Afterwards, whatever the outcome of the first round, will come the time of the legislative elections, in June 2022. In other words, all minds will be turned elsewhere than towards the work of the European Union. Europe will be caught in the crosshairs of partisan debates. Whatever the outcome of the vote, a new government will have to be put in place, which will not automatically be the one that started the presidency, and will even be radically different (see box).
The ever-irreplaceable weight of a presidency
Admittedly, a presidency of the Council of the European Union no longer has the importance it had before the Treaty of Lisbon. The presidency held by a Member State no longer leads the debates at the European Council (meeting of Heads of State and Government giving the major political impetus), it no longer chairs the Foreign Affairs Council or the Eurogroup, because its presidents are permanent. His potential impulses are also more measured at 27 than at 12 or 15 (and when the presidency returned every six or seven years). But the presidency – with its ministers and diplomats – remains irreplaceable for pushing files, negotiating compromises, unblocking subjects. Europe still remains a political 'object' where human relations are important. A point often underestimated. There are often exchanges between ministers on the mode: “I support you there, you support me later”. In 2022, the credibility of French ministers will be almost nil... Because how can you trust someone who is likely to be gone in a few weeks?
A deliberate choice
However, it has been repeatedly proposed to the President of the Republic to swap his presidency with another Member State – either to go earlier or later in the calendar. This is also the practice often followed when a presidency of the European Union arrives during national elections. Germany and Finland thus exchanged their presidencies in 2006 and 2007. Indeed, no one at European level has any interest in seeing a government team busy with their re-election or, worse, leaving in the middle of a presidency and replaced by another who has not really been introduced to the choices made or maneuvers in progress. The Elysee, however, refused outright, assuming, even claiming, to be able to exercise a presidency in the middle of the electoral campaign, several sources confirmed to us. A choice of strategy, and of political communication, which could turn out to be harmful today. It's a shame for France, a presidency is only every 13 to 14 years today. And, above all, it is a pity for Europe.
(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde)
A president who risks waltzing next April. The result of the last elections - municipal and especially regional - even reduced to the local yardstick and abstention - leaves more than a doubt on the renewal of the President of the Republic of the Republic in progress in his functions. On the right, the Republicans raise their heads. On the left, the Greens settle in the landscape. While on the far right, even weakened, the National Rally remains anchored in the minimum 20% of votes, say the past elections like the polls. The president's party (LREM) has not managed to get out of the usual low level where the centrist party (Modem) was, around 10-12%. In the state of play today, Emmanuel Macron is no longer guaranteed to pass the course of the first round. He remains a political animal, gifted to sow confusion among his adversaries, to then impose himself in a field of ruin (eg in 2017). But the situation could be different in a year.