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[Challenges 2021] Europe, a growing responsibility after the Capitol 'attack'

(B2) The year 2021 had not even started when incredible news came from Washington, the invasion of the Capitol, the holiest of holies of American democracy, by an uncontrolled and violent gang. This event can change the game or, at least, to crown an evolution already started

The cold snap in America requires reflection (credit: Portuguese Navy)

Becalmed by the Covid-19 epidemic, a good part of the world, and Europe in particular, is as if atrophied by this coronavirus which it is struggling to fight. While other stakes run

Three lessons from the Capitol attack

A terrorist attack

The attack on the Capitol on January 6 cannot be reduced to an incredible farandole. It is a major event in more ways than one. The hot reactions are a testimony to this (read: Between consternation and condemnation, Europeans appalled by the 'insurrection' at the Capitol in Washington). The timing is not trivial: in full certification of Joe Biden's votes, it is not just a demonstration that degenerates, but a deliberate desire to break the democratic process. The mode of action (more organized than it looks, and very military) can be likened rather than to a coup d'etat, to a terrorist act targeting the seat of power. We are facing an event similar to that of September 11, 2001.

Far-right threat becomes main

This event closes, in a way, the sequence opened in September 2001, after the attack against the twin towers in New York and the Pentagon. Not that Islamist terrorism is eradicated. But because an equally great threat now hangs over democracies. Obviously. A threat from extreme movements, from the national right, bringing together white supremacists and neo-Nazis. This movement has always been closely watched by intelligence, but politically underestimated. However, it has already hit hard in recent years in Norway, Germany and New Zealand (1). And it cannot be put on an equal footing (as some observers do) with left-wing extremism (which no longer has terrorist or coup d'etat intentions as in the 1960s and 1970s). This extremism is complex because it has deep roots in the heart of Western societies, is imbued with conspiracy theories and even Holocaust deniers, and does not hesitate to take action against Jewish, Muslim and foreign communities and also against political parties. democratic (Norway, USA). Purely endogenous, it implies a more subtle reaction than a military intervention or the simple tracking down of criminals.

American democratic and military solidity affected

Besides the internal consequences, this act has external consequences. The USA, guardians of the temple of democracy, are doubly affected, in their soul and their honor, in their deterrence and their strength. What value will their admonition against authoritarian regimes have tomorrow? Difficult to lecture Belarus or Iran for example... Are the USA so strong today, when they are incapable of defending their own institutions against a horde, which was not powerfully armed? ? These questions can be answered. The single Capitol event is a serious flaw.

A global rebalancing

This event also signals the closure of another sequence, that of American omnipotence.

The multipolar returns to the charge

The Russian resurgence, the Chinese emergence, followed by that of India, leads to a global rebalancing. Moscow, Beijing, and to a lesser extent New Delhi today have the means for world diplomacy, just as much as Washington. The question of vaccines against Covid-19 will be a life-size test. A country today really has the choice of finding allies if it is threatened. The balance made in Türkiye between NATO and Russia proves it. This significantly reduces American extra-territorial power whether it is hard power (armies), medium-hard power (sanctions or investments) or soft power (trade, culture, health, etc.). We are thus at the dawn of a real multipolarism which could not really hatch with the fall of the USSR. It is not the Capitol event that triggers the movement. It crowns it, much like breaking ice, and reveals the boiling water below.

A de facto rebalancing between the USA and Europe?

In this new configuration, we could also witness a kind of natural rebalancing between the USA and Europe, whether in democratic exemplarity or within the Atlantic Alliance. The Capitol event raises questions. What if the US defaults? What if Europeans could no longer rely 100% on the USA? The question came up from time to time during Donald Trump's tenure. We thought the page turned. The attack on the Capitol is proof that these are not just short-term questions, but a real strategic evolution that can (or must) occur.

For Europe, crushing responsibilities

Europe does not have a few cards to play here. She has real responsibilities. It is up to it to demonstrate that its model of democracy, balance in society, global diplomacy and peacekeeping is the most sustainable (see box). It's up to her to demonstrate that you can have a moderate voice, without being weak, without fading. It is up to her to negotiate firmly, but without excess in a world which, under the weight of the Covid-19 crisis, is evolving under two contradictory trends: withdrawal and stronger interdependence. It is up to her to overcome the trauma of losing one of a key country, the United Kingdom. It is up to her to finally take an interest in world affairs, to intervene, without interfering.

Fifteen crisis areas to follow closely

At the geopolitical level, several ongoing processes raise questions because they have serious consequences for Europeans:

  1. The stabilization of Libya with a ceasefire which will have to be consolidated.
  2. Relations with Turkey, which are experiencing ups and downs, with Ankara's attitude diverging from European interests to say the least in recent months (Syria, Libya, Nagorno Karabagh, Eastern Mediterranean, military equipment).
  3. The conflict in the Sahel, with the mortgage that weighs on the effectiveness of the French operation Barkhane, the commitment of the Europeans and the governmental transition in Mali (as in Niger or Burkina Faso).
  4. The resumption or abandonment of the Iranian nuclear agreement, with the possible reintegration of the United States into the agreement or the nuclear race forward.
  5. The outcome (or not) of the peace process in Afghanistan and the concomitant withdrawal of NATO countries from the country, 20 years after the 2001 intervention.
  6. The takeover of its own security by the Somali government and the reduction of forces on the spot (African Union, USA, etc.).
  7. The aftermath of Brexit, with a United Kingdom tempted by competition with Europe, but threatened with a creeping internal schism (Scottish separatism, Irish unitarianism, etc.).
  8. The fate of the various disarmament treaties which are in the process of either being abandoned (FNI, Ciel Ouvert) or of extinction (New Start) (Read: From the NPT to the TIAN, the treaties for nuclear disarmament under the magnifying glass).

Without forgetting

  1. The conflict in Syria which is 'celebrating' its tenth anniversary, with Bashar al-Assad still in place.
  2. The threat of the Islamic State which has not been completely eradicated in the Middle East, especially between Iraq and Syria.
  3. The war in Eastern Ukraine and the process in Normandy format initiated by French and Germans which skates.
  4. Stabilization in Nagorno Karabakh led by the Russians.
  5. The situation in the Middle East, with the elections in Palestine in May and July, the restoration of relations between Israel and several Arab or Muslim countries (United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan) and a (hypothetical) resumption of the peace process with Israel.
  6. The conflict in Ethiopia between the central government and its province Tigray, which for the moment remains limited to the national level but could destabilize an entire region.
  7. The Islamist and terrorist push in Mozambique, a new crisis zone.
  8. The situation in the USA, which today has become a 'potential' hotbed of instability.

Remain vigilant in the face of the unforeseen crisis

This is what is predictable. The surprise remains always possible. The last few years have been full of these reversals of situation, of these conflicts which break out or end. We must therefore keep the door open to all eventualities and be vigilant. The ability to react to crises or events is an essential asset if Europe wants to remain a major player. Europe is in fact at the time of making choices: react and exist, or allow itself to be overwhelmed by successive crises and gradually, slowly but surely, fade away in what looks more like a 'Sumo fight' than a a new cold war.

(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde)


A reflection on strategic autonomy

Beyond words, the European Union has begun to reflect on its strategic autonomy and has begun to equip itself with instruments. The establishment of a control system for foreign investment, such as the discussion around the regulation of the Internet or the strategic compass that are beginning, testify to this. The setting up of the European Defense Fund and the European Peace Facility will be particularly worth monitoring this year as well.


  1. The list is long to name a few: in Oslo and Utøya (Norway) against the Norwegian Labor Party and the government in July 2011 (77 dead, 151 injured); in Munich (Germany) in July 2016 (10 dead, 36 injured); in Finsbury Park (United Kingdom) against a mosque in June 2017 (1 dead, 10 injured); in Pittsburgh (USA), against a synagogue in October 2018 (11 dead, 1 injured); in Christchurch (New Zealand) against mosques in March 2019 (51 dead, 49 injured); in Halle-sur-Saale (Germany) in October 2019 for Yom Kippur (2 dead, 2 injured); in Hesse (Germany) against shisha bars in February 2020 (11 dead, 6 injured), etc.

Nicolas Gros Verheyde

Chief editor of the B2 site. Graduated in European law from the University of Paris I Pantheon Sorbonne and listener to the 65th session of the IHEDN (Institut des Hautes Etudes de la Défense Nationale. Journalist since 1989, founded B2 - Bruxelles2 in 2008. EU/NATO correspondent in Brussels for Sud-Ouest (previously West-France and France-Soir).

One thought on “[Challenges 2021] Europe, a growing responsibility after the Capitol 'attack'"

  • Gonzague MOYON

    Very interesting article. Thanks Nicholas.

    Indeed, alongside the withdrawal, even the implosion, of the United States, and the absence of European military defense, there is the even more hidden expansionism of China (Africa, New Silk Road, Arctic , Pacific), the Russian threat (Arctic, Belarus, Baltic countries and Ukraine, but also Africa) and the opportunism of certain dictatorships (Turkey, for example) which threaten the world, in general, and democracy and Europe, specifically.
    In this non-exhaustive context, what becomes of European Defense in the short term?
    Because there is imminent danger!

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