Farewell Donald. Defense Europe owes you a lot. We will miss your gunslinging tweets

(B2) The departure of Donald Trump is undoubtedly good news for the USA. Not automatically for Europe or at least its defense

The media's favorite president

I really liked him Donald! The whole profession adored him. Any journalists who would say otherwise are actually bloody hypocrites. With Trump, the show was guaranteed every night and every morning when his last angry tweet of the night came out. One day it was Macron's European army (read: Trump tackles Macron's European army project. Is he right ?). Another European Union policy (Read: I don't give a shit about being popular in Europe. Europeans must pay et Europe is not treating us well, laments Trump). And never very far, he slapped a good slap in the direction of Germany, its overly competitive cars, its leaders not reverent enough, its weak defense budget, etc.

A rock'n roll Atlantic Alliance

The NATO summits, usually so well-oiled, where boredom can quickly overtake you, as everything goes like clockwork, have become with Donald, a real soap opera, worthy of a western, with slaps of doors, ambushes in the corridors... and reversal of situation. (Read : NATO summit: Trump, his diatribes, his tweets et The four reasons for Donald Trump's bloodshed at NATO). His declaration on the obsolete alliance remained in everyone's mind. Discreetly, the Alliance's legal department was even asked to check the conditions under which a member country could withdraw (NB: the USA). Trumpian moods troubled the alliance.

Behind-the-scenes jokes

Behind the scenes, things were going very well. At all levels of the Alliance, from the management offices to the various delegations, there was also a lot of talk (read: Donald Trump's ears whistled at Buckingham Palace). In the corridors of the Atlantic Alliance, everyone gave themselves to their heart's content to make fun of a president, to exchange pastiches or the last good words of the main shareholder of the Alliance. " I've never seen so many and so fierce one of the Alliance diplomats told me. In circles specializing in security, like in Munich, it wasn't crazy love either (read: In Munich the name of Donald Trump arouses a great white). Not very surprising then that the one who jumped for joy at the departure of this whimsical president is the Secretary General of NATO. Norwegian Jens Stoltenberg sees his nightmare come to an end.

And congratulations @JoeBiden on his election as the next US President & @KamalaHarris as Vice President. I know Joe Biden as a strong supporter of our Alliance & look forward to working closely with him. A strong #NATO is good for both North America & Europe https://t.co/Ij3rWtNH5c

- Jens Stoltenberg (@jensstoltenberg) November 7, 2020

A certain persistence in foreign policy

However, despite his inopportune statements and his back and forth, and his detestable character, we must recognize certain qualities in the leader of the Republicans. His foreign policy stance has been rather clear, limpid and quite predictable (read: Trump's "America First". For Europe, a certain language of truth). His decision to withdraw from the agreement on Iran, as on the climate was announced. His weak belief in multilateral structures could be verified over time. His promise to withdraw US troops, almost everywhere in the world, was kept, even if it was done in a messy way at times. And the Eastern European countries have benefited from almost unfailing American support in the face of Russia.

An objective ally of European defense

For the common European foreign and security policy (and stability in the world), Trump was therefore ultimately not a bad guy. It did not drag us into an endless or destabilizing war (eg Iraq 2003). Despite (or because of) his permanent aggressiveness, he forced (a little) the Europeans to come out of their entrenchments, to start (a little) to think autonomously from the USA, as on Iran in particular (read: Donald Trump's decision on Iran, a real gamble. A challenge to Europeans too!). In terms of European defence, even if it is not the only factor, this has prompted certain countries, which tend to follow American policy, to say to themselves that after all, a European defense policy was not entirely useless fact. Like a spare wheel, in case the NATO 'car' breaks down.

'Biden' a demanding friend...

I am not extremely sure that, on this strict point (of European defence), we have to win with a Joe Biden. Certainly politics will be friendlier, more polite with Europe. There will be a bias in favor of allies over adversaries in the White House and the State Department. This will not automatically mean a clear field for Europeans. On the contrary. You will have to deserve (this friendship) and show your credentials.

...and persistent heavy trends

Europe is no longer 'the' priority for Washington. The famous pivot towards Asia – initiated under Obama-Biden, continued under Trump – will persist. The dynamic arms and defense export policy of US industry is not going to give way any time soon. Washington will want even more than ever to have a foothold in European defense projects (permanent structured cooperation and European defense fund, in particular). And the notion of 'burden sharing' will remain high on the US agenda. In short, doing the 'belly dance' today in front of 'Joe' risks causing some heartburn tomorrow.

(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde)

You will have noticed that this is an editorial, not an analysis, with a certain dose of irony, where the second degree sometimes joins the first.

Read also our detailed analysis of foreign policy according to Biden and the commentary on the European position on Iran The Iranian nuclear deal. Straight Europeans in their boots