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The three possible scenarios of the evolution of the coronavirus

(B2) The evolution of the epidemic gives way to several conjectures in France as in Belgium.  The most sensible thing I've seen today on this topic comes from... Bulgaria

The structure of Covid-19 (credit: CDC.gov Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)

The head of the operational center for the fight against the coronavirus, Dimo ​​Dimov presented to the Council of Ministers, at the beginning of May, the three scenarios of the evolution of the epidemic, drawn up by the international scientific community. The advantage of this information is that it clearly presents all the scenarios, from the most pessimistic to the most optimistic.

First scenario: the second wave

According to this scenario, there will be a series of recurring waves of sick people, including during the summer and for two years. A drop in the number of infected is possible in 2021.

Second scenario: return to winter

The second scenario foresees an increase in the number of infected in autumn and winter, as is the case for seasonal respiratory infections, followed by one or more waves of sick people in 2021.

Third scenario: slow extinction

The third scenario evokes the possibility of a slow extinction of the disease. We assume a continuity of the transmission of the disease, without however that there are waves of contaminated.

A virus that circulates, remains to know its virality

Whatever the scenario, the virus could continue to circulate within 18 to 24 months, scientists say. But the whole question is whether its virality, its lethality (mortality rate) and its contaminating power will still be as effective.

stay optimistic

As for other viruses of the same family (Sras for example), its elements could decrease over time, until the appearance of a new virus. The interest of Bulgarian communication is to show that there are options, and that among these options, we know nothing. It's more realistic (and more honest) than a one-way communication that only emphasizes one hypothesis, the blackest, that of the second wave. You have to be careful and take precautionary measures. But we must not either give in to black panic and stop all our social, economic and political life.

Containment, an extreme emergency measure

If generalized confinement is a justified measure for a few days or weeks, the time to organize, in extreme urgency, it is not justified for long months. This radical option was chosen by several public authorities (in France and Belgium in particular), to compensate for their lack of reaction at the very beginning of the epidemic and their subsequent inability to set up the main elements of a limitation policy. of the epidemic, quite simple because it is based on three main elements: testing of all suspected cases (or not), confinement of the sick, and distribution of protective masks. It reveals today its most dangerous elements in economic matters as well as respect for freedoms.


Updated with the second part of the commentary and the photo

Nicolas Gros Verheyde

Chief editor of the B2 site. Graduated in European law from the University of Paris I Pantheon Sorbonne and listener to the 65th session of the IHEDN (Institut des Hautes Etudes de la Défense Nationale. Journalist since 1989, founded B2 - Bruxelles2 in 2008. EU/NATO correspondent in Brussels for Sud-Ouest (previously West-France and France-Soir).