The American operation in the Strait of Hormuz: a small taste of diplomatic failure

(B2) The American call to set up a maritime coalition in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz clearly directed against Iran has caused a splash!

Moderate enthusiasm

Launched last July, this call had not really aroused a folichon enthusiasm from the beginning. That's an understatement. The Europeans were reluctant to follow the Americans, in an attempt to further destabilize Tehran. Washington, which has been knocking on the door of Paris or Berlin, Brussels and The Hague, Rome or Madrid, has received polite but firm refusals everywhere. Three months later, it's a fact. No country rushed to follow the Americans in the adventure, except the British after Boris Johnson came to power. And, again, lip service (1). The Poles said they were considering possible support. It's weak...

A loss of influence?

We can even speak of a certain failure. In 2003, the America of Georges W. Bush had succeeded in dragging behind it a dozen or so European countries, and not the least (Italy, Spain, Poland, Portugal, Denmark in particular), against the Iraq of Saddam Hussein. Today, a polite silence responds to their repeated requests. This could be seen as a loss of American influence in Europe (2). That would probably be a hasty conclusion.

The diplomatic channel rather than maritime provocation

Three causes for this failure can be discerned. First of all, the poor result of the 2003 intervention in Iraq remains in everyone's memory. And, today, even the most faithful of the faithful, are no longer ready to engage with their eyes closed in a new warlike adventure in the Middle East under American leadership. Then, the mistakes of the Trump administration do not lend themselves to great confidence. Its persistence in a policy of maximum pressure on Tehran does not really produce any obvious effect for the moment. And retaliation against ships or sailors by Iran is always possible. Cautious, the Europeans prefer to use the diplomatic channel, which has shown some success in the past. They said it very clearly, all together during the gymnich, the informal meeting of foreign ministers in Helsinki at the end of August (3).

A policy of counter-productive pressure

By pushing Iran to its limits, the United States only succeeds in promoting radicalization and throwing Iran into the arms of other countries. In what was until now considered an American preserve - the Gulf and the Middle East - the Americans have lost a precious ally, the Europeans, who now prefer neutrality, and have opened the doors wide to their adversaries. strategic: Russia and China. Cheer !

(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde)

1. Announced at the political level, this commitment remains limited. The Royal Navy prefers to communicate on its national operation protection of ships flying the British flag.
2. The other Middle Eastern countries (Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, etc.) also remained very discreet in their support.
3. Read Europeans slow down operation in Hormuz: exchange of information rather than escort

Lire aussi file No. 72. The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf