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Blog AnalysisStabilization - Peace

European diplomacy put to the test of the world

(B2) Despite the prevailing pessimism, the situation is no worse than a year ago. 2018 was a year of tension, with new diplomatic issues raised in particular by President Trump. However, there have been advances, with the conclusion of agreements, sometimes historic, as in Macedonia or in the Horn of Africa. In order not to sink into an ambient pessimism, but while remaining realistic, a brief overview. 

Islands of hope in the world

In the Horn of africa, a historic movement seems to be beginning with the Eritrea-Ethiopia-Somalia cooperation agreement signed in September, followed by a peace agreement between the two Ethiopian and Eritrean enemy brothers. In the Golf, an agreement was reached in December in Stockholm between the Yemeni parties; very fragile agreement, which has little chance of being emancipated, but it is a first agreement.

En Syria, the interminable civil war seems to be entering a last phase, certainly sinister, in which the international community accepts, half-heartedly, that the solution will have to include Bashar al Assad, on the way to completing the reconquest of a good part of the territory with the aid from Russian and Iranian allies. The Russian-Turkish-Iranian trio which now manages the process both military and political has, contrary to the negative omens, held the rope and 2019 could begin the end of an almost decade-long conflict. Syria, expelled from the Arab League in 2015, resumes contacts with Muslim countries, which seem willing to dialogue.

The agreement between the Macedonia and Greece, to rename the first in "Republic of North Macedonia" was ratified by the Macedonian parliament this January 11, 2019. If ratified by the Greeks, it will suppose a historic advance that will allow the country to enter into the NATO club (and in the long term in the EU) and to breathe an air of pacification into the region. 

In Latin America, more than two years after its signing, the 2016 agreement with the FARC seems to hold Colombia, despite the election of Ivan Duque (in June 2018), very critical with the agreement.

Gray side, stabilization and prospect of peace

L'nuclear deal with Iran, despite the American defection, still holds, not for long perhaps, but it holds. Europe is challenged here to succeed in its risky gamble of creating the "special purpose vehicle" to support European companies and enable them to circumvent American sanctions.

In Africa, the countries of Sahel (Niger, Mali,...) held firm. But the offensive of rebel and terrorist groups, if contained, is far from being reduced. It even extends to Burkina Faso now. And the rise of the G5 Sahel is slow, very slow... The situation could also get complicated with the organization of legislative and presidential elections in Mali in April. Nigeria will also have parliamentary elections on February 16.

In the rest of theCentral Africa, the situation remained relatively calm. It will however be necessary to monitor the DR Congo, Cameroon and Chad, where the organization of elections can inflame the countries.

La Libya is no longer the black hole of 2017 but remains anarchic, with always two political poles in opposition. A solution could be looming, including General Haftar in the equation. A key event will be the organization of legislative elections in the spring.

Au South Sudan, where half a decade of war has devastated the country, another peace accord was signed between the warring parties in September. Some see signs of hope in this new truce, paving the way for the return of refugees and the reconstruction of the country. The agreement is however unstable and could, like that of 2015, fail after its signature. The organization of elections in the spring of 2019 will accentuate rivalries and could destabilize the country (where armed groups remain active and create a climate of insecurity) and plunge it back into conflict.

In Balkans, an area that was believed to be peaceful, nationalist excesses - in Kosovo, in Bosnia and Herzegovina in particular - are reawakening a painful past, forcing Europeans to devote themselves to this area, once again, more than they did in the past. pass.

black side,

Ukraine. The conflict in Eastern Ukraine, far from being frozen, as some unrealistic analysts call it, produces its quota of deaths every day. The negotiation process started in Minsk, if it made it possible to keep a channel of dialogue, did not produce its effects. And the Russians have logically opened a new maritime front to control entry and circulation in the Sea of ​​Azov. With elections scheduled for March, Poroshenko's government may be tempted to respond to the attacks in a strong manner. 

As for the peace process in Middle-East, failing to be totally dead, he is in an overwhelmed coma. The Swedish ambassador to the UN indicated this recently when he left his temporary seat on the United Nations Security Council. The French and European initiatives having totally failed, the United States is now expected to present its strategy. But the decision to move the embassy to Jerusalem does not lead to optimism, especially since it is followed by other countries. 

En Latin America, the political and economic conjuncture is oriented to the black. The diplomatic achievements of recent years have been put aside. Forgotten the consolidation of autonomous diplomatic spaces. Forgot the priority given to multilateralism. South-South cooperation is forgotten. In the name of recycling a Cold War foreign policy. The offensive speeches of defense of the free world have resumed service. The most immediate consequence, these thousands of Central Americans who walk towards the North, creating a migratory flow with still undetermined repercussions. The main crisis, political and humanitarian, is that of the Venezuela, whose second government of Nicolas Maduro is not recognized by the international community. 

The European Union must take its place

In all these global upheavals, European diplomacy holds its own. But without boldness. The Iranian nuclear deal is backed at arm's length by the Europeans who have managed to keep it alive. In Libya, it was set aside by France, then by Italy. In the Sahel, it is very active but the results are not up to par, both in terms of security and politics. The risk is very great of losing the battle for visibility, to the benefit of Russia. In Syria, it is one of the great absentees. And with Brexit coming, the Union is expected at the turn. For almost all Europeans, it seems obvious that more European action is needed, but which one? Much can be done in foreign policy and the subject should become one of the key elements of the European elections, where the guidelines for the coming years will be defined.

(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde and Leonor Hubaut)

Leonor Hubaut

© B2 - Bruxelles2 is a French online media that focuses on political Europe (powers, defence, foreign policy, internal security). It follows and analyzes developments in European policy, unvarnished and without concessions. Approved by the CPPAP. Member of SPIIL. Please quote "B2" or "Bruxelles2" in case of recovery Leonor Hubaut is a journalist. Graduated in international relations from the Free University of Brussels (specialization in globalization). She covers for B2 the work of the European Parliament, CSDP missions and African issues. Sahel specialist.

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