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What hides the candidacy of Manfred Weber to the Commission?

(B2) Manfred Weber, the German CSU MEP, president of the EPP political group in the European Parliament, has just announced his candidacy for the head of the EPP list, and, if he wins, for the head of the European Commission. A serious candidacy, supported by Berlin, and which does not seem to arouse any serious opponent (1).

Manfred WEBER presenting his candidacy for the head of the EPP for the European elections (credit: European Parliament)

An application with strong internal logic...

The CDU-CSU is the main party of the group of the European People's Party. There has not been a German candidate for the European Commission for several decades. The man, little known to the general public, has succeeded (so far) in maintaining unity despite the divisions between supporters of a political Europe, supporters of deeper integration in all social and external economic areas, and supporters of a classic Europe, a large market above all. He comes from the 'conservative' side of the party, reflecting the group's evolution to the right. This candidacy nevertheless represents – if approved – a severe drop in ambition for the European Commission.

... but some questions arise

Did Weber play a leading role?

This is not an official nomination criterion. But it is one of the first 'unwritten' criteria for claiming the job. You have to be part of the 'chefs club'. Since Jacques Delors, all the Presidents of the Commission have played a leading role in their countries: from Jacques Santer, the Luxembourger, to Jean-Claude Juncker, his compatriot, via the Italian Romano Prodi or the Portuguese José- Manuel Barroso, all of them were prime ministers in their country before moving to Brussels. Logic: the Heads of State and Government want to propel one of their own to the European executive, one of those who has a history of government, which would prevent him from 'going off on his own'. Having been elected, and having governed, he knows how to distinguish between what is the political trajectory and the need to reconcile points of view. In theory, it ensures to have a certain popular basis. Incidentally, this also allows the President of the Commission to be a man of phone calls - " Jean-Claude Juncker spends his time on the phone “, we assure the Berlaymont. The President of the Commission is indeed a 'honest broker' (an honest broker) tasked with making Member States that have different policies work in some harmony. It is a political harmonizer, either to prepare the legislation to be proposed, or to clear up certain conflicts. Manfred Weber was not even prime minister (foreign affairs or economy and finance) like Jacques Delors was. Here we are in a very notable regression. Which does not prejudge the political quality of the man. Power can often reveal personalities.

Is he a recognized political figure?

This is a second 'unwritten' criterion at the post. You have to have a certain reputation that transcends borders. A name that means 'something' not only in its region or country, but beyond. However, even if Weber can bring together the whole political family, even beyond the side of the Liberals, he does not have the same hate that had (before their appointment) a Jean-Claude Juncker or a Romano Prodi. These were not only a representative of their party, they aimed beyond. A President of the Commission is above all a unifier who, even if he has deeply rooted political ideas, must represent beyond that.

Does the EPP have an inescapable right to lead the Commission?

Even if the European People's Party (EPP) could remain the first in the European Parliament in 2019, its advance would not be as triumphant as today where it makes up, with nearly 220 seats, 30% of the hemicycle. In addition, in 2019, the sharing of tasks between two parties — along an EPP - S&D axis, in the purest tradition of the 'Large coalition' à l'allemande —, will have lived. The European governmental majority can only come, in 2019, from a new grouping: either a majority of progress, by associating the liberals and democrats (reinforced or refounded if necessary with the support of the 'Working' Europeans), or even another group — the Greens for example — or a right-wing EPP - Conservatives + Liberals for example (2). It will be difficult for the EPP to claim to occupy three of the four main European functions (presidency of the European Council, of the European Commission, of the European Parliament) (3), as is the case today.

The system of Spitzenkandidat is it viable?

The principle of automatically giving the leader of the party that came out on top of the campaign the head of the European Commission is contested. From a political point of view, we can consider that this is a point which does not appear at any time in the European philosophy of the existence of the Commission. It is not written into the treaties either; it is not prohibited, but not authorized either or even implicitly deductible. From a philosophical point of view, we can consider that it is a guarantee of democracy or, on the contrary, the victory of the superstructures over democracy. But above all, concretely, several European leaders (who are those who have a say in the appointment of the President of the Commission) contest this process: from the Frenchman Emmanuel Macron to the Hungarian Viktor Orban via the Italian Giuseppe Conte. In short, the principle of the Spitzenkandidat can be kept as head of the list and contender for the post of President of the European Parliament — which has both political and democratic logic — but not for the head of the Commission's list.

Conclusion: a waiting candidate or a way to kill the Spitzenkandidat?

With this candidacy, isn't Berlin discreetly 'killing' the principle of the Spitzenkandidat (which does not garner the sympathy of Angela Merkel), by proposing a candidate who does not fulfill some of the criteria, not written but respected until there ? In this hypothesis, Manfred Weber would be fit to preside over parliament (4). But another candidate should emerge for the head of the European Commission. Or is he not preparing a new coalition, oriented more to the right, with the conservatives, in line with the trend observed in several Member States (Austria, in particular)? The problem will then be to obtain the approval of the Heads of State and Government (5).

(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde)

(1) The candidacy of the Frenchman Michel Barnier, even if it could be desirable, no longer seems so topical.

(2) This logical coalition at the economic level would be difficult to form at the ideological level. Between pro-integration liberals and anti-integration conservatives, the equation will prove difficult.

(3) The post of Vice-President of the Commission / High Representative of the EU being vested in the Social Democrats.

(4) Over part of the five-year mandate, in the event of a coalition.

(5) The European Council may decide on the proposal of the President of the Commission by a qualified majority of its members.

Nicolas Gros Verheyde

Chief editor of the B2 site. Graduated in European law from the University of Paris I Pantheon Sorbonne and listener to the 65th session of the IHEDN (Institut des Hautes Etudes de la Défense Nationale. Journalist since 1989, founded B2 - Bruxelles2 in 2008. EU/NATO correspondent in Brussels for Sud-Ouest (previously West-France and France-Soir).

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