PESCO, the new European defense project will see the light of day (V2)
(B2) More than 13 member states, through their foreign and/or defense ministers, are due to sign a document on Monday (XNUMX November). The first stone for a new cooperation within the European Union, the “permanent structured cooperation” in defense matters.
The date is symbolic: just two years after the attacks in Paris (Bataclan, terraces, Saint-Denis) which led to the triggering (for the first time in short European history) of the mutual assistance clause (article 42.7) . But this is not in itself the "real" launch: it should take place in mid-December, during another EU Council.
Fishing for goodwill
This cooperation is better known by its English acronym "PESCO" (than by its French acronym "CSP") which has the advantage of simplicity. A word that also means "I fish" in Spanish. Which is actually not quite far from the process under way. The Europeans cast the net... And we'll see what we get. Some know they want to harvest fish, others just want to be on board the fishing boat, others are the owners.
How many countries will participate?
Twenty straight away (23 normally according to our latest count, made from the best sources) and probably 24 or 25 countries by December (1). That is to say almost everyone except Denmark (excluded by an opt-out dating from the Maastricht Treaty), the United Kingdom (because of Brexit) and Malta (due to a lack of will). We are, in fact, quite a long way from the French vision (and from the original idea of the designers of this Cooperation): a hard core, organized, structured for the most ambitious operations possible. We are closer, in fact, to the German idea of a political rapprochement, progressive, at variable speeds, with "framework nations". But, in the end, the important thing is to get this "thing" out of the rut where it had been left since the late 2000s.
What does this cooperation mean?
All words are important. This is not just an "enhanced" cooperation project. This is a "structured" and "permanent" cooperation, like what has been done for the Euro zone and the Economic and Monetary Union. A Defense Eurozone in a way.
What do the signatories commit to?
The participating member states do not commit themselves to spending more on defence, but above all to spending better and avoiding duplication. They will therefore undertake to devote a little more money from their defense budget to equipment (at least 20% of their defense budget) and to technological development (at least 2% of their defense budget). They will undertake, also and above all, to work more in cooperation, on various industrial, capacity or operational projects. Finally, they will undertake to provide men and equipment for the missions or operations decided upon jointly, to improve the availability of their forces, and even to speed up their internal decision-making procedures.
What are the participating countries going to do in concrete terms?
Participating countries also undertake to take part in one or two "structuring" projects, of a capability (industrial) or operational nature. About fifty projects were presented. Some are duplicated or not very original (and consist of (re)presenting a project already carried out bilaterally or multilaterally). These projects must first be evaluated according to a scoring grid defined by the European Defense Agency and the EU Military Staff. A decision will be made on the nature of the projects carried out in December (or in January at the latest). In the end, only about ten projects could be selected (according to our information).
What projects could be carried out within PESCO?
We could very well find projects of a capacity or industrial nature – the European MALE surveillance drone (medium altitude long distance), the future combat aircraft, in-flight refueling aircraft, satellites – operational – common cyber defense units, a coordinated command for medical support (field hospital, MEDEVAC medical evacuation), a logistics hub, a first entry force, etc. — or human — military Erasmus or common training for officers —.
Is this the beginning of a European force?
No. Not in itself. But that does not prohibit it... We could very well design projects aimed at completely integrating certain forces of several countries in a sector, according to several stages spread over ten or even twenty years. The "medical support" project could have this ambition, as well as the idea presented by Emmanuel Macron of a "European intervention initiative".
What is the real interest of this PESCO?
The important thing is joint planning. A system called (CARD = Coordinated Annual Defense Review) will allow States to compare their needs, their deficiencies, the equipment envisaged and their funding (scheduled or not). From there... we will try to reconcile the "schedules" to arrive at a joint planning, by trying to fill the existing gaps, by launching joint programs, even joint acquisitions...
How will this device be controlled?
We are essentially in a political context. But the device is not as loose as one might think. Each country will be required to draft an implementation plan, even before the official launch of the Cooperation. This plan will be evaluated by the European services (the Union military staff, for the operational aspect, and the European Defense Agency, for the capability aspect) giving rise to a recommendation from the High Representative, and final decision by Member States. This procedure will then be repeated every year, with a common evaluation.
Can a participating State be excluded?
Not ruled out per se... but suspended. This procedure is expressly provided for in the Treaty. If a State is no longer in a position to fulfill these commitments, a procedure is planned “, as explained by an expert of the file. " By qualified majority, the participating States can decide after certain stages, that this State will no longer participate ". All things considered, we are not far from what is happening in the Euro Zone.
In the end... a historic day or a simple stage
Some will probably call this day "historic" (2). This is not the case. The Permanent Structured Cooperation mechanism should have been implemented as soon as the Treaty of Lisbon was put in place, almost ten years ago (1 December 2009). It is therefore rather a “stage”, a necessary, primordial, crucial stage. Europe is in the process of shifting into first gear in a system destined to grow. To take a more maritime image, the ship "Europe de la Défense" which remained moored in the port, sheltered from the dykes and strong waves, unties the moorings to go sailing offshore.
(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde)
(1) (updated) This figure was increased to 25 definitively on December 7 with the confirmation of Ireland and Portugal. Read : A PESCO at 25
(2) We have the easy qualification of history at the European institutional level, and this term is so overused that it no longer means anything. For B2, there are historic days (the fall of the Berlin wall, or the peace agreement in Colombia). We are not there yet. But there is definitely a serious awareness.
Read on the Blog:
- A permanent structured cooperation more political than military? (October 2017)
- Permanent structured cooperation at your fingertips (August 2017)
- Europeans break six taboos on defense (June 2017)
- A hard core that has become a marshmallow. A permanent structured cooperation: what for? (May 2017)
And on B2 Pro (for our members and subscribers)
- Numerous projects for PESCO… It's teeming!
- Permanent Structured Cooperation or PESCO approved by 2X countries? Explanation (V4)
- The twenty PESCO commitments in detail…
- PESCO governance in detail
- PESCO: Poland is dragging its feet
- Permanent structured cooperation: six sequences to be finalized and nested
- Permanent structured cooperation. A framework or a process?
- The 19 principles of Permanent Structured Cooperation endorsed by at least eight countries. Details
Our file : No. 52. The 2017 defense package. A new cycle begins
And our historical chronological sequence:
- Defense Europe. From 1999 to 2009: ESDP
- Defense Europe. From 1948 to 1999: beginnings and fledgling steps
Updated the 8.12