B2 The Daily of Geopolitical Europe. News. Files. Reflections. Reports

Blog AnalysisgovernmentsDefense industry

Beata better get her umbrella out. Stupidity in power in Warsaw

Beata had better take out her umbrella! (credit: PM Poland)
Beata Szydlo visiting the Polish factories of Mielec and Sidwik (credit: PM Poland)

(BRUSSELS2) The decision of the Polish government to abandon without firing a shot the negotiations conducted for a year with Airbus for the purchase of Caracal helicopters and to announce that it prefers the American's Black Hawk helicopters Lockheed Martin is often close to that taken in 2002 preferring the F-16 to the Mirage 2000-5. But the context is completely different. If the decision to buy the F-16 could be justified, it is very difficult to explain other than by political and ideological criteria. This decision by Beata Szydło's government reveals a certain excessive pride, a certain self-confidence which is not in touch with political and geopolitical realities and risks turning against the Poles. In a word, this decision is stupid... to cry.

The missed purchase of the Mirage: another matter

In 2002, Poland had just joined NATO. The F-16 was then the plane adopted by a good half-dozen European armies (Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark, Greece, Norway, Portugal). Only Greece is equipped with Mirage. By choosing the first model, Warsaw took the “NATO standard”, ensured for a reasonable price a certain possibility of pooling with other countries on an identical standard, and made it possible to return the change of their support to the American partners. There was an obvious political and operational logic (even if we may not share it) in choosing the F-16 rather than a French aircraft manufactured in France. To harshly criticize this acquisition for Poland and not to do so for other countries – as some commentators do – is, to say the least, illogical and slightly derogatory for the Poles.

The purchase of Caracal: an industrial choice too

In 2016, the situation is slightly different. Airbus is a European group, and not just French. It has a strong position in the helicopter market. And even if the Caracal (EC 725 or H225M) has not been chosen by other allies, it is a device of choice, already tested, sold in several countries around the world. Its predecessor — the Super Puma — is used by several European air forces (Germany, Spain, Greece, Sweden). And its civil version (H225 Super Puma) is also promised a certain future. The European group wants to invest in Poland and make this country a base for its exports to the East. An interest for the industrialist but also for the country. Most of the countries of the former "Soviet bloc" are equipped with Russian-made helicopters of the Mi type. This is the stake of a real project for Poland, leader of the Visegrad group.

A delicate assembly destroyed by bulldozers

The delicate division of the various contracts concluded by the Polish army between the Americans (for the missiles) and the Europeans (for the helicopters) - carried out by the previous government - was the result of a subtle balance, carefully considered at the political level, allowing, without denying Poland's Euro-Atlantic attachment, to open doors for Europeans to work together too. There was even talk then of a possible rise of Poles in the capital of Airbus. Alas... for multiple reasons — not the least of which is that the decision was taken by the previous government — Warsaw decided to break off the discussions and go ahead with a contract with Lockheed Martin. This is a low blow to the European industrial and technological base project. There is no point in gargling words if in fact we are doing the opposite.

A snub to European integration

This act is also very political like the previous one but largely imbued with an ideology and small calculations in the very short term. For the PiS government, it is first of all a question of reviewing the decision of the previous government. What the Civic Platform (PO) did is wrong, what PO did must be undone. It is also a question of showing across the Atlantic how much Poland is faithful to its interests. Incidentally, it is a question of inflicting a snub on France and Germany (Paris, which is very involved in this sale, is not alone), on Airbus and, more generally, on anything that closely resembles or by far to European integration which is hated in Warsaw. Moreover, this decision defies the European authority forcing him to act – because the new contract may well not comply with European rules on public procurement (as some European sources have told B2).

A sadly stupid mistake

Using methods that are more like rogue methods — pretending to negotiate a contract while negotiating on the sly with the competitor is not really fair play — are not such as to inspire confidence for the future. Poland will no longer be a reliable ally for years to come. To upset a European country (France) which is not a minor either at the level of the European Union or of NATO, a country with which we share a certain state organization (unitary state, majority/opposition) such as in socio-economic matters (place of agriculture in the economy, and of industry, etc.) and is therefore an objective ally, is quite a misstep. To do so at a time when negotiations are beginning with Brexit (with a large Polish immigration present on British territory), when the medium-term revision of the current financial framework (2014-2020) is beginning to be negotiated and when soon will s he start of a new European multiannual financing framework (2021-2027), where Poland has everything to lose (1) is pure political idiocy.

A lack of historical meaning

Finally, if the Poles believe they are attracting American benevolence and protection, they are putting their finger in their eye to the core... They have forgotten the story. The United States never lifted a finger when Russia — and later the USSR — intervened militarily on the European continent: neither in 1968 in Prague and in 1956 in Budapest, nor in 1991-1992 in Moldova. (Transnistria) and in Georgia (Abkhazia and South Ossetia), neither in 2008 again in Georgia, nor very recently in 2014 in Ukraine (Crimea, Dombass), nor even in 2015-2016 in Syria. You have to look at history and current policy... The only times the United States has intervened is to support proxy interposed certain forces which opposed the Russian-Soviets, as in Afghanistan. The result is not extremely convincing from a simple medium-term American security point of view. There is a strategic error that Warsaw commits, deluded, by a disheveled patriotic tropism...

(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde)

Read also our analysis: Warsaw chooses Lockheed Martin and its Black Hawks. Airbus denounces a bad move

(1) All the indicators are red for Poland: 1) It is one of the main beneficiaries of structural funds and agricultural funds in the new European version set up in 2000. 2) it is necessary to compensate for the British departure (at the very least 5 billion euros a year less) - which implies tightening expenditure. 3) All countries today need fresh European money, especially Spain, Ireland and Italy. And everyone will 'defend' their national interests dearly. 4) The net contributing States (Germany in the lead) will no longer want to pay - without compensation - for countries which failed in the first duty of solidarity in the last migration crisis. Etc.

 

Nicolas Gros Verheyde

Chief editor of the B2 site. Graduated in European law from the University of Paris I Pantheon Sorbonne and listener to the 65th session of the IHEDN (Institut des Hautes Etudes de la Défense Nationale. Journalist since 1989, founded B2 - Bruxelles2 in 2008. EU/NATO correspondent in Brussels for Sud-Ouest (previously West-France and France-Soir).

2 thoughts on “Beata better get her umbrella out. Stupidity in power in Warsaw"

  • JEAN-CLAUDE ALLARD

    is pure political idiocy.

    Admittedly, this is a mistake, but you did not analyze the action of the United States in the list of reasons. You start from the principle that it is for the Poles to ensure the strategic support of the US, but you do not address the fact that the US was able to put pressure on the Poles. The US putting pressure on a country and also the concern of a government to undo what another has done before it, we have a magnificent example of this with the issue of PCBs sold to Russia

  • born-in-55

    we must abandon the Europe of 27 to consolidate the Eurozone, make it the hard core of integration. Hungary and Poland just have to have fun with each other, alone against Russia.

Comments closed.

s2Member®