(B2 in Warsaw) The Atlantic Alliance summit which ends in Warsaw is a "success", defense budgets have increased, the NRF has tripled its strength, the forward presence, although limited, plays its 'deterrent' effect . Is all of this correct?
A NATO summit is being prepared ahead of time, here in June 2016. (NATO)
A success ?
The vaunted final “success” is written in advance. Because, as an experienced diplomat reminds us, “it cannot be otherwise”. It is the written law of all NATO summits. The intense preparation upstream normally avoids any hiccups.
Defense budgets have increased?
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg welcomed the €8 billion increase in defense budgets in Europe. But this only imperfectly reflects the reality of the figures. In fact, we can rather say that the decline is stabilized, durably. And if there is an increase in the military budgets of the Member States, at the same time, the Americans have, in fact, increased their budget by 15 billion (in 2010 prices). Suffice to say that the EU-USA gap is growing rather than shrinking.
The NRF has tripled its strength?
13.000 men yesterday, 40.000 men tomorrow. Math speaks. And the number seems significant. In fact, this tripling is quite artificial since in 2008, according to official NATO documentation, the NRF already comprised up to 25.000 soldiers. It is true that this remained very theoretical. This NRF was then above all “reactive on paper” as an Alliance officer explained.
Is the deployment in the Aegean effective?
Hard to judge. For the moment, no official report has been communicated. In fact, there are still some concerns with the Turks who would like to see this " presence to end as soon as possible.
The presence in the East: 4000 men only?
The number is a bit understated. If we add the four land battalions (about 4000 men) in the three Baltic countries and in Poland, the American air detachment, an American armored brigade which is deployed in Poland (3200 men), and the air detachments which provide permanent surveillance Baltic Air (Baltic Air Policy), the figure is much higher than that officially displayed by NATO. We rather arrive at a total of 9-10.000 men. A certain 'modesty' no doubt linked to the NATO-Russia agreement which refutes everything " additional permanent stationing of large combat forces ».
...and football
It's not just NATO in life, there's football too! " Mrs. Merkel had the delicacy to send me her congratulations late in the evening to tell me that she had followed the match and that the French team had won, that it was the best that had won. The German players had a completely admirable behavior, the fans also admitted defeat, were exemplary calm said François Hollande.
Chief editor of the B2 site. Graduated in European law from the University of Paris I Pantheon Sorbonne and listener to the 65th session of the IHEDN (Institut des Hautes Etudes de la Défense Nationale. Journalist since 1989, founded B2 - Bruxelles2 in 2008. EU/NATO correspondent in Brussels for Sud-Ouest (previously West-France and France-Soir).
