Le Non Grec: Brussels has failed to conquer hearts and minds
(BRUSSELS2) Once again, the European heart has been beaten heavily during a consultation by referendum. Once again, the polls that predicted a Yes-No were totally denied. Once again, the Europeans were stunned by the result, hesitating between admonishment and cold tone without thinking to find where the error was. Is it for all that the European idea which is defeated? Or how to defend it? I'll go for the second option.
Distilled information that has been repeatedly contradicted by the facts
Listening to the hammering produced by the various European structures, we felt uneasy about being European last week. The arguments used were biased, both in terms of legal and economic analysis, and political assessment. What have we not heard in the corridors of Europe. First of all, the Greek parliament was not going to vote for the organization of the referendum (it was Saturday June 27). The parliament voted by a large majority. Second 'line of defence': this referendum is illegal and it will be annulled by the courts. It was not the case. The Council of State has validated the organization. For now, no one disputes the result. Participation was significant (62,5% according to the final results) without being massive, but sufficient to give an undeniable result. Thirdly, the organization of the referendum will immediately lead to the cutting of all the budget lines of the European Central Bank. And, chaos will be immediate. None of this happened. The Financial Times even went so far as to predict a levy on bank accounts... Finally, it was suggested that Yes was very close to winning. We were almost at the point of discussing the constitution of a technical government and so on. All this fell like a house of cards from the first partial results which gave more than 60% of No. A figure that was confirmed and even amplified over the evening with 61,31% according to the final result. The difference in votes between No and Yes: more than a million votes being quite notable.
Drawing inspiration from counterinsurgency theory
There is something like a 'system error' in the European system which hammers so hard arguments just as populist and fallacious as those it claims to be fighting. The will to integrate the peoples into the European "thing" seemed very distant. The European institutions have failed to " Convince hearts and minds as in 2005 in France and the Netherlands. European leaders would do well to reread General Petraus, who most recently theorized this conception of counterinsurgency: Winning hearts means persuading the populace that their best interests are served by counterinsurgent successes. Winning the spirits means convincing the population that force can protect them and that resistance is useless. ". As in the referendums in France and the Netherlands in 2005, this 'No' is not a refusal to Europe or to their government, despite what certain commentators or extreme movements claim. It is a 'No' to a certain idea of Europe, distant, arrogant which says 'I know', 'there is only one choice', the one I am offering you. And you are 'an ignoramus, an incompetent'.
A hundred leagues from the ideas that form the basis of Europe
To say that this vote leads to a "Grexit" automatically, or even an exit from Europe, is a perfect example of this attitude. Admittedly by finishing the last plan put on the table, at the end of June, which was only before that a calculation becomes a crisis option. It is taboo today. But waving it around as a threat, fear, had the opposite effect of the intended effect. Among certain European officials, particularly in several Member States, the desire to humiliate Greece and the Greeks was clearly perceptible... In a sort of blackmail: that is where the chaos is. So present in some that it could only cause real unease in those who truly believe in the European idea. To misunderstand, to underestimate an opponent is to go into battle with a hell of a disadvantage. To humiliate him, moreover, is assured defeat. " Do not overwhelm a desperate enemy. said Sun Tzu.
In this campaign, we were very far from the European ideas of solidarity, integration and negotiation... in short, community and union. The objective of Europe is not to unite what is similar, it is to unite dissimilar peoples and States in a community of destinies, to unite them in a union which brings them closer and not keep them away. The failure of this blitz campaign is this...
(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde)
