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Stratfor sees the Russian at the gates of Kiev!


RussiansChervonoe26Feb2015@Stratfor(BRUSSELS2) Stratfor, engaged in a small wargame in March on the possibilities of a more pointed Russian military incursion into Ukraine. A great amalgam of proven information and others that are more like rumors, as the private American "intelligence" (=intelligence) company itself reminds us.

Scenario 1. Limited incursions and territorial continuity of separatist territory

The first scenarios examined are the most limited of them all. " In this paradigm, Russia has carried out small incursions along its entire common border with Ukraine with the aim of threatening various key objectives in the region and, in doing so, flaunting Ukrainian combat power as much as possible. . From a Russian military perspective, this is efficient and effective, but it would not achieve additional political or security objectives that are not already underway. However, such a move would likely be used in conjunction with any future military actions by Russia or pro-Russian separatists. » Another limited option according to Stratfor strategists “ is a small extension of current separatist lines to the north, incorporating the rest of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts to make the territory more autonomous. This offensive would mainly consist of the direct engagement of Ukrainian forces which are concentrated along the separatist zone. »

Scenario1 Limit@Stratfor

Scenario 2: The Bridge to Crimea

One of the options the most commonly run would involve Russia driving along Ukraine's southern coast to connect Crimea with separatist positions in eastern Ukraine. ». In this scenario, Strafor “ assumed that the planners would conduct the front offensive wide enough to secure the Crimean primary water supply from the Dnieper. This aquatic feature is significant, as much of Russia's defensive line would be tied to a defensible point in the region: namely, the Dnieper River. It would then be necessary reach a land bridge and secure the supply lines in Crimea. In conducting such an offensive, the initial thrust would move forces rapidly across Ukraine towards the city of Kherson and Nova Kakhovka on the Dnieper River, where they would set up defensive positions. One of the potential constraints for this scenario is the fact that supply lines would have to be extended quite a distance along a thin, hard to defend, strip of land. »

ConquestUkraine3OddsCrimea@Stratfor15
The scenario of the bridge to Crimea

3rd scenario: conquest of the coasts and junction with Transnistria

The other scenario considered involves seizing the entire southern coast of Ukraine to connect Russia and its security forces in the breakaway region of Transnistria. The logic would be to cripple Kiev by cutting it off from the Black Sea, thus securing all Russian interests in this region in a continuous arc. This would require a complicated and dangerous transition operation over a large river, with an extended and vulnerable logistics train. » In this scenario, " defensive positions can only be anchored on the Dnieper River. This would require a greater number of forces to hold ground, without the luxury of a geographic barrier. The port city of Odessa would need to be captured afterwards, which would be a huge gash to Ukraine's economy. »

The coast scenario
The coast scenario

« Both scenarios that extend along the coast have serious shortcomings, leaving Russia's force in very exposed places. An expansive frontage on relatively flat terrain, bisected by waterfront features, is less than ideal. There are options for Russia to go beyond that. However, this would involve taking the southern half of Eastern Ukraine in an overall attempt to commit less combat power. However, this still leaves a massively exposed Russian flank and removes the security bonus of the Dnieper. A significant part of the defense lines would not be anchored on the Dnieper River. Instead, it would be stretched along the Kharkiv-Dnepropetrovsk axis, controlling these two cities as well as Zhaporizhia. »

Scenario 4: Taking Kiev

The last scenario considered by Stratfor “ could remedy these problems. In short, Russia could seize all of eastern Ukraine at the Dnieper, controlling all major crossing points, and using the river's major obstacle as the defensive front line. Yet to take all of this area would require a significant amount of mobile forces in eastern Ukraine. The resulting occupation would also require a massive counterinsurgency campaign, including operations in the Kiev regions, as well as in the cities of Kharkiv, Dnepropetrovsk and others, where a high level of resistance could be expected. »

ConquestUkraine1Kiev@Stratfor15

Nicolas Gros Verheyde

Chief editor of the B2 site. Graduated in European law from the University of Paris I Pantheon Sorbonne and listener to the 65th session of the IHEDN (Institut des Hautes Etudes de la Défense Nationale. Journalist since 1989, founded B2 - Bruxelles2 in 2008. EU/NATO correspondent in Brussels for Sud-Ouest (previously West-France and France-Soir).

One thought on “Stratfor sees the Russian at the gates of Kiev!"

  • These scenarios do not take enough account of the method used by the Russians in Ukraine: the conquest of spirits.
    In almost all of the Russian-speaking part, the Kiev authorities have a bad reputation (thieves, Nazis, etc.) and the Russians just have to maintain a bad atmosphere there (protests by civilians, attacks on government symbols with molotov cocktails, high-dose propaganda ) to paralyze Ukrainian possibilities of action without violent recourse (Maidan upside down). As a result, the government forces find themselves increasingly in a hostile zone, until the moment when an action by the nice green men or the separatists can quickly neutralize them and show themselves as liberators.
    It is striking to note that this method designed and applied by Westerners has been forgotten, while on the contrary, the Russians have integrated the lesson very well and apply it perfectly.

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