Get your head out of the sand!

(BRUSSELS2) Perhaps 700 dead in a new shipwreck in the Mediterranean after the 400 dead last Sunday (12 April) in the Strait of Sicily! Loud cries, press releases, have been flying in all directions since this morning asking for more action, more money for Frontex, European reaction, and so on.
A predictable accident
The reaction is as strong as... the event was expected. The pressure of conflicts around the Mediterranean means that "ordinary" migration is supplemented by people fleeing conflicts. Trafficking networks benefit from the presence of a failed state (Libya) from a haven of peace to carry out all their trafficking. With the return of spring and good weather, there are many ship departures (*). And a shipwreck just as predictable on these barcasses, poorly maintained and fully loaded, as driving on a highway, in the wrong direction, blindfolded!
The lost bet of waiting
The bet taken by the Europeans, since the start of Operation Triton, under the aegis of the European border control agency (Frontex, located in Warsaw), has been a commitment of the most limited means possible, to ensure a minimum of support and arrivals on the coasts. It is a fact. In addition, the Commission, the High Representative and the Member States wanted to give themselves as much time as possible to react: presentation of a strategy on immigration in mid-May; planned debate between Home and Foreign Ministers (jumbo meeting) in July, etc. A fairly classic mechanism for Europe: don't hurry... The Europeans seem to have their heads in the sand, however, forgetting some basic data, such as the weather which favors numerous departures in the spring, and the race against the time, a fundamental factor in crisis management. The management of rescue at sea is not a legislative field, where it is necessary to prepare well, to refine a text, to think before acting. It's the contrary. We must prepare to act as quickly as possible by quickly laying down the principles of action and putting the political leaders up against the wall, to avoid being taken from behind. This has not been done. And Triton's bet is therefore lost.
A deliberate cynicism
This wait-and-see strategy is cynical and criminal. It is based on a foundation that no one in Brussels, Berlin, Paris or Stockholm will dare to clearly admit, but which corresponds to Real Politik in its most cynical side, as a regular in maritime operations summed it up to me. "It's better for refugees to die at sea: 1. it's more of a deterrent than saving them; 2. It costs less politically and fiscally." This maxim has a drawback: it forgets the law of serial accidents. In a very cold way, we can say that 40 or 200 deaths from time to time, that is quickly forgotten. 2-3 disasters of several hundred deaths, blow after blow, and the machine of public opinion races. All the good strategies then crumble. And we feel obliged to act urgently, even if it means shaking up established codes. Italian ships intervene today, urgently, where Frontex ships cannot. The ministerial meetings are advanced at the rate of the rise of emotion. The Italian Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi, with his Maltese counterpart, Joseph Muscat, are asking for the convening of an emergency European summit. And everyone - including those who refused this solution yesterday - seems to approve of this necessity today. As a result, the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk confirms that he is looking for a solution, etc. We are in a lose-lose strategy.
Talked to PM Muscat after tragic deaths in Mediterranean. Will continue talks w/ EU leaders, Commission & EEAS on how to alleviate situation
- Donald Tusk (@eucopresident) 19 April 2015
Fold your arms, count the dead, or act?
Faced with the Libyan drama, there are now only two options: to fold our arms stoically and count the dead, or to act quickly but above all in multiple ways. The action will involve a real risk, which will be as much operational as political: creating a breath of fresh air for migrants and refugees. But will it be greater than doing nothing? This is the whole question that is posed today to political leaders who must operate "on the spot". To reduce this risk, we must act on a fundamental point: smugglers and human trafficking. Matteo Renzi's point of view is the right one when he says that " The problem is not the sea control, but of destroy the smugglers, ce new slave traders of the XNUMXst century ". For that it is necessary commit significant resources, at several levels, to tracking down smugglers and traffickers, like what has been done to fight piracy in the Indian Ocean. Material means are needed: aerial (drones, maritime surveillance planes, etc.) and maritime (coastguards, military ships). We need political and legal means. Because it is necessary that this operation be carried out with the navies of the region (from Turkey, Egypt, Tunisia, Lebanon in particular). We must finally "invent" a solution for Libya without waiting for a hypothetical government. A solution that could take advantage of the Somali precedent. That is to say under the aegis of the UN.
A UN resolution and an agreement from ... Russia
The control of the Libyan coasts can, in fact, only be carried out as closely as possible. This means that - as with Somalia - a UN Security Council resolution is needed allowing an international maritime force to control Libyan territorial waters. This presupposes obtaining the consent not only of the countries of the region but above all of a country in a position of right of veto in the Security Council, Russia, which has constantly repeated that it would no longer accept the reiteration of what happened in 2011 with the NATO operation (Unified Protector). It is necessary, in concert with Moscow, to promote, not an embargo, but a police control of these coasts with an active search for smugglers and other traffickers. This maritime security force cannot be, directly or indirectly, commanded by NATO. It will either have to be placed under the aegis of the European Union or of the UN. And there again, in order to acquire Russian consent, it will be necessary to associate them directly or indirectly with the command of the operation (as they are in the anti-piracy operation).
Anti-piracy experience
This anti-piracy operation is exemplary in more ways than one. In the end, it will have been effective because the approach was gradual but also massive, with a whole range of means put in place – boats, planes, private guards, etc. —; a particularly innovative judicial system — dedicated local courts, legal agreements for the transfer of prisoners, and retransfer for the execution of the sentence —; an equally innovative system of coordination and involvement of the international community — whether through secure radio networks (Mercury), regular "deconfliction" meetings (Shade), the distribution of tasks between those who ensured the escorts, the interventions, more or less forceful, and the arrests — and all the political and development work to gradually restore a government and institutions in Somalia.
Catch up
The Europeans - with their operation EUNAVFOR Atalanta and the other actions undertaken - have gained, there, a know-how and an experience which it would be foolish not to take advantage of today in the Mediterranean. It would indeed be totally incomprehensible not to be able to do what we did in Somalia for Libya. Or else it would be considering that the saving of human lives is less important than the interests of deep-sea fishing and the merchant navy... We must make up for the time lost since last summer and the scheduled end of the operation Mare Nostrum, by going into overdrive from now on.
The lure of control in the countries of origin / transit
As for control in the countries of origin and transit – which is on everyone's lips, in particular the European Commission – this closely resembles a decoy. This means that we must resolve very quickly to find a solution to the inflation of conflicts - in Nigeria, in South Sudan, in Somalia, in Iraq, in Yemen, and especially in Syria, which is hiding a maximum of refugees. This would mean negotiating with Bashar for control of its borders. It would also require asking Lebanon or Turkey, which can no longer put up with refugees from Syria, to prevent them from leaving. It would also mean negotiating with closed countries like Eritrea, or Sudan, then finding a way to control areas that are difficult to control in Yemen, Somalia, northern Mali, northern Niger, northern Nigeria... say decoys!
(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde)
Lire:
(*) A week ago, between Friday (April 10) and Tuesday (April 14), the Italian coast guards announced that they had rescued nearly 8 people in the Mediterranean!
Maj. 20.4 with quotes from Matteo Renzi and additional information on the fight in countries of origin and transit