The best measure against Russia… Hit the gas
(B2) The debate on sanctions against Russia will rebound at the European summit being held this Thursday and Friday (March 19/20) in Brussels
A debate that has already been held in Riga, during their informal meeting (known as Gymnich), the Foreign Ministers of the "28". Without really succeeding (Read details in our pro/club edition: Russia. Europe is reluctant to quickly extend the sanctions. What if uncertainty was the best measure!
The subject has been judiciously postponed, unless the "Chiefs" decide otherwise. The signing of a "package of measures" to apply the Minsk agreements has changed the situation slightly. A package that enters "cahin cahan" in force. "The assessment of the proper application of the Minsk agreements is important than knowing when the sanctions will be renewed notes an experienced diplomat.
A deadly addiction
Sanctions are only a stopgap measure that puts pressure on part of the economy but not on all power. The truth is that Russia holds by the c... of many European countries with the gas market. Lithuania, Latvia and Slovakia in particular are the countries which, in 2013, were the most dependent on Russian gas (100%) and whose gas formed a clear part of the energy mix (almost 40% for the first, more than 30 % for the second and third). But, in volume, it is Germany and Italy, above all, with the United Kingdom, Poland and France to a lesser extent, which are Russia's biggest customers. All Europeans are therefore more or less concerned.
A gas detox plan
The best measure that the Europeans can therefore take is to initiate, very quickly, a gas detoxification plan, coming from Russia. It is around this issue that the Europeans must concentrate. Even if it costs, a bit expensive. Even if it means doing it by forced marches. Even if it means having to invest a few billion euros in infrastructure and energy saving projects.
A good test for the Juncker plan
Gaining energy efficiency could also be the most effective in the short term. This is the easiest decision to make, the investments are relatively moderate. They also participate in a circular economy (any expenditure can result on the other side in opportunities for industries or services established in Europe). They allow, without formally breaking the contracts, to reduce dependence, to detoxify. It would be a good test for the Juncker investment plan.
A matter of independence
Energy autonomy is a part of strategic autonomy and would be worth at least 2 or 3 armored regiments and as many fighter aviation squadrons. It would be the best reassurance measure that the "Allies" and the Europeans could take. And the best measure of European determination vis-à-vis Russia...
The harshest of penalties
For Russia, this would be the harshest of sanctions. Gazprom, like the Kremlin, will feel the wind blowing. An energy contract is generally not concluded for one or two years, but for twenty years.
(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde)
