European sanctions: are they useful? is it effective?
(B2) The question of the usefulness and effectiveness of the sanctions pronounced by the European Union against certain regimes as well as their objective comes up regularly. Here are a few things to think about...
To properly understand the mechanics of sanctions, three mistakes should perhaps be avoided.
First error: Idealize sanctions, as a success formidable self-sufficient
Clinging to sanctions as the 'alpha and omega' of a foreign policy is a mistake often made by some officials but also by public opinion (including the media). It is the combination of several instruments - and their subtle mix - that makes a policy successful. 'Sanctions' are thus only one aspect of this policy, with 'diplomacy' on the other, 'technical or financial aid' to the opposition or to the most 'democratic' parties of a regime, without forgetting the 'military instrument' which is made not to be used, but must be present as a deterrent, and 'international cooperation'. Sanctions alone are not enough. They are not than an instrument in the service of a policy, European leaders often say. Well Named.
Mistake Two: Despising Sanctions That Have No Effect
These sanctions often have a certain at least dissuasive effect, on the one hand on the targeted country, so as not to push the 'cork' too far; on the other hand, on neighboring or non-targeted countries, to avoid being in turn hit by sanctions. For those who doubt the effect of the sanctions, it is enough to see the number of proceedings initiated before the General Court of the EU. They number in the dozens each year and have become one of the main sources of litigation. Even if some are politically motivated, their number alone proves the corrosive effect of sanctions. If they really had no effect, it is certain that they would not give rise to as many legal actions, especially from economic entities.
Third error: believing that the sanctions will have a quick effect
This temptation is very present on the “Russia-Ukraine” file, in particular where certain countries are constantly pushing to increase the cursor by half a point, as if that would radically change the situation. The effect of sanctions is slow. The "time" element is a key point. With a few exceptions. And the instrument must be handled with care - hence the importance of a millimetric dosage as in chemical matter - because it can achieve the opposite objective. To take a maritime image, the sanctions are a bit like the salt and the tide of the ocean on the rocks, it takes time, but tirelessly, they reduce the smallest rock to sand... But on arrival, is this is the desired result.
The invisible effects of the mechanics of sanctions
The objective sought by the sanctions is to obtain a change in the policy of third countries. But beyond this stated objective, the mechanism of sanctions fulfills other, less stated objectives.
Create an internal dynamic
The usefulness of sanctions is primarily for internal use... for the European Union. Putting in place sanctions obliges the Europeans to agree on a series of concrete measures. It is always more difficult than to agree on a diplomatic language of condemnation which, generally, collects the consent rather quickly, apart from a small “quibble” on the level of condemnation. From the level of the sanctions – individual or economic –, from their scale, their speed, their intensity, we can perceive the degree of unity of the Europeans and their determination.
To be one of the modes of expression of the European voice
The use of sanctions also has an external virtue: to show that the EU can speak with one voice, is capable of inflicting economic bans or sanctions. He is today the best tracer today of the "stick" side of foreign policy; Europe does not have a military deterrent tool, nor even the ability to have one, and a territorial defense objective.
... even a deterrent weapon
This can also have a certain deterrent effect with regard to certain countries or in certain cases of international relations. With regard to certain countries, largely dependent on European assistance (technical, financial, political), the 'stick' sanctions, even unagitated, is very present. This is particularly the case for the ACP (African Caribbean Pacific) sector, which receives significant European aid. THE "soft-power" is there as effective as "Hard Power", or rather it is the combination of the two.
Variable geometry efficiency
The real effectiveness of sanctions is very difficult to measure. And it depends on a number of elements that are sometimes elusive or change over time.
Sanctions Effectiveness Factors
The effectiveness of this instrument largely depends both on elements specific to the measures taken (targeting, scope, duration, etc.), on its scope (political or economic sanctions), but also on elements of the international context (sanctions only European or international...), the economic context (the intensity of the country's relations with the European Union, the country's integration into the international economy and politics, its alternative capacities) and political (its openness interior — democratic or not — its determination and its external support, etc.).
Syria. A certain failure
In Syria, Europe has taken a maximum of sanctions. This is almost the maximum we could take, since most economic relations (finance, oil, arms) are interrupted. But these failed to shake the regime's determination. The reason: 1° the sanctions are not international, 2° the country has alternatives, 3° the regime has made the repression of the opposition, the main axis of its policy, a question of survival, no matter the cost. Against the "scorched earth" policy, sanctions have little effect. But they nevertheless hamper its action.
Russia. An effect yet to be assessed
Vis-à-vis Russia, a more important country, the scope of the sanctions remains significant. It plays on the economy: on the Russian side, the effect of the sanctions on the current Russian economic weakening is estimated at around 1/3 (2/3 being due to the fall in the price of oil). It has an effect on economic leaders but also on Western investors (read about the Club: Russia. Europe is reluctant to quickly extend the sanctions. What if uncertainty was the best measure!). It is a factor of doubt today for any investor worthy of reason who is about to invest in Russia. From there to influencing Russian policy, there is a step that it would undoubtedly be daring to take. Because we have not yet reached the heart of Russian power (Read: The best measure against Russia... Strike with gas).
Iran. A certain effect but in the long term
In a country like Iran, the context is different because the sanctions are, this time, international and major. But they did not have an effect right away and they did not act alone. It is thanks to a change of regime in Iran (which the sanctions have somewhat encouraged, is that the whole question?) and to negotiation that a solution is in the process of being sketched out. But it will have taken time.
(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde)
Read also:
- The European Union's sanctions policy put to the test by judges
- Sanctions against Russia… Who wins? Venus or Mars
- The boomerang effect of economic sanctions on Russia
And to go further (memo sheets on B2 Pro):
