Greece leaving the Euro: Possible, Impossible?
(B2) Speculation has flared up over the fate of the Eurozone and Greece's membership since Der Spiegel, the German weekly newspaper, claimed last Saturday, citing sources close to the Chancellor, that Germany was ready to let Greece to leave the Euro zone in the event that Syriza wins the legislative elections of January 25, and calls into question budgetary discipline. Is this hypothesis considered? Is it possible? How much would that cost ? What is the German magazine based on? Answers…
Can we leave the Euro Zone?
For the European Commission, membership of the Euro zone is “irrevocable”. It is based on an article of the European Treaty which irrevocably fixes the conversion rates of the national currency into Euro. An argument that does not hold water from a purely legal point of view. The reality is more prosaic: the Treaty says “nothing” about leaving the Euro Zone. Everything is possible… in theory. But everything will therefore have to be defined both by the country wishing to leave and by the member countries of the Euro zone. All this under the supervision of the markets. In the political and economic reality, it is very difficult if not impossible. This is why membership of the Euro Zone is irrevocable.
Can leaving the euro be done quickly?
No. It is a process that would require a lot of time and energy. Leaving the euro is not only deciding to change the currency, it is reintroducing an exchange rate, changing internal legislation, reprinting new banknotes and coins, placing them with all traders and distributors bank, etc. A titanic job at a significant cost. The introduction of the euro and the disappearance of national currencies required several years of preparatory work.
What would be the cost of leaving the Euro?
Leaving the euro would have a very high cost for the country concerned but also for all the countries of the Euro zone which have made loans. It could cost European taxpayers billions of euros, according to Guy Verhofstadt, the former Belgian Prime Minister, now an MEP. " Reports show that for Germany alone, it could cost 80 billion euros »
Is Greece's exit (Grexit) from the Eurozone an option being considered by the European Commission?
Not at all. " Grexit is not a position envisaged at the European Commission. And this is clearly not the scenario of the European Commission “, we hammer at the European Commission. A point of view that Commissioner Pierre Moscovici confirmed to Ouest-France. " Greece has its place in the euro. “Position shared to the millimeter by his Finnish colleague, Jyrki Katainen, however little suspect of complacency with regard to Greece. " Speculation about a Greek exit from the eurozone is a waste of time. Membership of the euro zone is irreversible " he added.
Der Spiegel specialist in the exit of Greece from the Euro?
What is the German magazine based on? On the wind… For a keen observer of the European and German scene, the idea of sanctioning Greece exists “among certain political leaders” in Berlin, indeed “but not among all”. It's not only " to put pressure (on Greece). It's more cash than that, it's an opinion. But that's nothing new. In fact, the German magazine Spiegel loves to ride an anti-Greek wave with very populist overtones bordering on xenophobia.
In May 2011, it already headlined " Greece Considers Exit from Euro Zone ". A year later, it repeated it, this time with a cover titled “Akropolis: farewell”, subtitled “Warum Griechenland jetzt den Euro verlassen muss” (Why Greece must now abandon the Euro). Inside, its editors explained how " leaving (the euro) is in the interest of the Greeks. Only Greece's exit from the eurozone gives the country a long-term chance of getting back on its feet ". None of his economic forecasts have come true…
Nicolas Gros-Verheyde, in Brussels
Article published in Ouest-France
