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The future Juncker I Commission in need of women. Latest Analysis

Who will be a member of the “Juncker” Commission? How many men, women? What political color will the new college have? How many former Barroso II Commission, former Prime Ministers or Ministers? Extract from the latest analysis published on the website of the Club B2 and updated during the summer

Jean-Claude J. in front of the press © NGV / B2
Jean-Claude J. in front of the press © NGV / B2

(BRUSSELS2 – exclusive) Nowadays, 23 Member States have publicly confirmed a name officially to sit in the future European executive, according to information from B2. While 4 others indicated the name of one or more candidates in a letter sent to Jean-Claude Juncker but not made public. Only 1 country – Belgium – has not nominated any candidate, but the establishment of a “right-wing” coalition now makes it possible to identify 2 names of “very” favorite personalities.

First lessons

By qualifying each of the names, formalized or not, we can thus draw an initial representation of the main balances of the new College: men / women, right / left, past experience, old or new commissioners.

Le number of women remains low. If over the appointments, we went from 1 or 2 women at the start to 4 now, this figure remains low, compared with the figure of 9 women in the current Commission (Barroso II). Despite several calls for reason, and pressure from Jean-Claude Juncker towards the capitals, men were favored over women for appointment within the college. NB: this ratio could certainly change due to the multiple applications sent by several Member States: Slovenia in particular, the Netherlands or even Belgium could ultimately send a woman. But this remains hypothetical. Especially since if Italy does not obtain the post of High Representative for Federica Mogherini, the probability that a man will be sent by the peninsula becomes relevant again and the minimum figure would drop to 3!

Le political shift to the left is not as radical as indicated: the Commission presents a 70/30 ratio (Right / Left). 19 commissioners can be labeled “right-wing (Christian Democrat or liberal or related) while 8 Commissioners can be labeled “left” (social democratic or related) with 1 neutral compared to a radio 75/25 (Right/Left) in the Barroso II Commission, with 20 “right” commissioners against 7 “left” . Also compare with the 60/40 balance which prevails in the European Council (12 Heads of State and Government from the EPP, 12 belonging to the S&D, 4 belonging to the Liberals or Conservatives). The explanation lies in the fact that governments in “grand coalition” (Right/Left) have more often sent a supporter from the right wing of the government than from the left wing. This political imbalance must, however, be put into perspective by the significant loss of the liberal wing (- 2 seats) within the college, to the benefit of Christian – social aid (+ 1 seat), which thus refocuses towards the center-right / center-left Commission level. NB: this figure could fluctuate slightly (due to the various personalities sent by Slovenia or Belgium) but the ratio (1/3 – 2/3) should no longer change significantly.

La Juncker Commission seems stronger with a greater number of former Prime Ministers: 5 personalities (taking into account the Slovenian presence) against 2 in the Barroso Commission, just like former ministers: 15 ministers against 5 (in the Barroso I Commission

The former Commissioners remain a small minority. Only a quarter of the workforce is renewed. We thus find 7 “elders” of the Barroso II Commission and 21 would be new to the role. That is significantly less than before. 11 commissioners were reappointed between the Barroso I Commission and the Barroso II Commission. NB: this figure has rather changed since the first analyzes of B2.

The sequel on the Club (article open to all for a few days)

Nicolas Gros Verheyde

Chief editor of the B2 site. Graduated in European law from the University of Paris I Pantheon Sorbonne and listener to the 65th session of the IHEDN (Institut des Hautes Etudes de la Défense Nationale. Journalist since 1989, founded B2 - Bruxelles2 in 2008. EU/NATO correspondent in Brussels for Sud-Ouest (previously West-France and France-Soir).