Will Jean-Claude Juncker be elected President of the Commission?
(BRUXELLES2) Today is the big oral exam for Jean-Claude Juncker at the European Parliament in Strasbourg. The former Prime Minister of Luxembourg, designated to head the European Commission, must win an absolute majority among MEPs, ie 376 votes.
A challenge for Juncker, for the European Parliament
How many votes will Juncker get? This is the question that haunts the corridors in Strasbourg. Will he be flush with the necessary majority? Which wouldn't bode well. Will he do more or less than Martin Schulz, the President of the European Parliament who obtained 409 votes. Will he do better than José-Manuel Barroso in his first term or his second term (see box). Which is one of the parameters of the election. The challenge for Jean-Claude Juncker is, in fact, not only to be elected but... "well" elected! A stake of power for the European Parliament as a whole, in the permanent fight which opposes it to the European Council, to the Heads of State and Government.
Last minute concerns
Certainly the two largest political groups in Parliament - which are in "grand coalition" - have promised their support, ie 411 votes on paper. For the Christian Democrats, Juncker's party, it is natural. But for the Socials and Democrats, it is less so. In this secret ballot, every vote counts. Juncker made the rounds of all the groups last week to convince the reluctant and undecided. And, at the last minute, phone calls have been numerous in recent hours. The President of the European Parliament, the Socialist Martin Schulz, also descended into the arena, touring his "comrades" last night to remind everyone of the duties of being in a "coalition".
grumpy socialists
Many elected Socialists have, in fact, announced that they want to abstain or vote against. The “discontent” is particularly strong among French socialists, who criticize the lack of appetite of Luxembourgers against tax evasion, and still wanted to abstain until yesterday evening. The Spaniards, some Italians, the Maltese, the Swedes would also miss the call, wanting to protest against the austerity policies. As for the British Labor Party, it is a matter of principle: they are opposed - like all parties across the Channel - to the principle of Spitzenkandidats (candidates leading the list).
Liberals and Greens to the rescue
The Liberals and Democrats, with some 68 MEPs, were called to the rescue, joining the "grand coalition" in Parliament at the end of June. They could, almost as a single man (except a British LibDem) bring their votes to the former Prime Minister of Luxembourg.
As for the Greens, they are divided. A final count, made yesterday, gave - according to our information - a small third of the group in favor of the Luxembourg candidate (about 15 votes) and two thirds against or in abstention. Most French-speaking Ecolo deputies will vote against or abstain with one notable exception: that of José Bové who stands out (in the worthy line of Dany Cohn-Bendit). " I vote for Juncker on behalf of the SpitzenKandidat process – in which I took part – and the advances he has made on shale gas and on GMOs. Voting yes today does not mean that we will vote for all the policies declared the former McDonald's dismantler this morning in front of a few journalists (including B2). " The division is made in our country between North / South, those who have undergone austerity policies are not very inclined to vote for Juncker” summarizes Michèle Rivasi.
On Juncker's side, however, we want to be reassuring, and reassured by the latest echoes. One of his relatives takes a bet with journalists that the "future president" will " at least 400 votes”... Our last count gives around 420 votes. Check it out in a few minutes...
Nicolas Gros-Verheyde (in Strasbourg)
long version of a paper published in Ouest-France this morning
Read about the Club: some additional details. Juncker's cooking trick to convince
(*) Back to the election of José-Manuel Barroso :
- En July 2004, for his first term, José-Manuel Barroso was elected by a large majority: 413 votes for, 251 against and 44 abstentions (out of an assembly of 732 MEPs), i.e. 56,4%
- En September 2009, for his second term, it had been fairer. The former Portuguese Prime Minister was only elected with 382 votes for, 219 against and 117 abstentions (out of a total of 736 MEPs). Or a small 51,9%.
Read also (archives 2009):
