[Analysis] The embargo (arms, finances) against Russia becomes inevitable
(BRUSSELS2) After the crash of the Boeing MH17, fired by a missile from eastern Ukraine, stricter measures will have to be taken by the Europeans against Russia. The time for dithering and hesitation no longer seems possible. It no longer seems possible now to list a few more names on a "black list" whose assets will be frozen in the European Union (*). The arms embargo is now on everyone's lips. It is also a question of aiming at the heart, some companies of the Russian establishment (the arms exporting company for example...).
The suspension of the delivery of the Mistrals
France, so far reluctant to take action on the delivery of Mistral ships, is primarily concerned. The position of Paris to consider this contract only at the time of delivery in October becomes untenable and generates more confusion than necessary. It actually looks like a symbolic green light to Moscow to do what it wants in Ukraine. The principle must be reversed: the contract is maintained (**) but it is a question of conditioning these high-performance ships as well as the exchange of technology which accompanies it to compliance with the principles defined in 4 points requested, during the council of European Union foreign ministers, end of June.
A total arms embargo...
This measure should not remain isolated. It is a measure of total suspension of military exchanges (purchase as well as sale) which must be made. An arms embargo, at the very least a common measure of suspension of export licenses for military equipment must be taken against Russia (as at the time of the crackdown in Maidan Square, the " 28" had done it against the power of Kiev, measure lifted today). For Europeans, this measure is not going to be as easy as some say. Because many countries still have Russian equipment and depend on this supply.
... and financial market measures
The Europeans cannot stop a "simple" arms embargo. It's a bit of a mark of good conscience. But it must be recognized that this will have little effect on the ongoing conflict. Russia has its own weapons capabilities. And it was not with a Mistral type ship that a civilian plane was fired on in eastern Ukraine. If the Europeans want to be tougher, more effective in their sanctions, they should take more drastic and more effective measures, by limiting, for example, all financial transactions from or to Moscow. This is about hitting Russia in the pocketbook. It will also be a test of whether those who are crying the loudest for sanctions (London, The Hague, etc.) will maintain their vehemence when their own economies may be affected by the backlash of these measures.
(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde)
(*) Very “procedure difficult according to several European diplomats because it is subject to increasingly rigorous control by the Court of Justice.
(**) It should be remembered that three countries competed to supply BPC-type vessels to Russia: France, the Netherlands and Spain.
Solidarity fund or clearing house
So that these sanctions do not specifically harm the most affected countries, the idea of a common solidarity "fund" or a "clearing house", making it possible to cushion the shock to the countries concerned, is sometimes mentioned. But without really going beyond the circle of "think tanks" and other observers. It's certainly a great idea... But it seems difficult to put into practice (who funds, on what basis, for what amounts, what is taken into account, etc.). And it's not on the agenda (but we can dream 🙂 On the other hand, having a more developed European export risk guarantee, for this type of government contract or exposed sectors, would be a project to be explored .
it would be worse than a crime…..a stupid mistake, adding to a blunder as made by the well-informed and trained US military…. see “Vincennes incident” on wikip etc.
with their president (bush father. ex cia) saying with contempt that he would not apologize because they were only Iranians…….. (but it may not have been a blunder, only a lesson….)
I think you are premature when it comes to Russia's culpability in the MH17 crash. What is the purpose of the investigation that will be set up? Or what proof do you have?
-Concerning the Mistral, France does not have the means to give up this market, unless for your vaguely moralistic reasons, you plan to put a few thousand more people out of work.
Since when do we expect Europe to do morals? Europeans expect it to resolve this economic crisis and promote trade agreements, not initiate a WW3 to protect interests contrary to those of the European people. As for the variable geometry morality of EU leaders…
- Solidarity Fund: How will Europe finance it? we have seen his inability to finance Ukraine.
-A total arms embargo: We have already done this kind of thing, we even completely banned a country from producing weapons, it was Germany after WW1. We can see what happened… Moreover, Russia is Russia, and with the agreements it is making with the Brics, China and India, I think your embargo will rather accelerate the understandings of this new bloc only hold Russia back. It sucks as an idea.
-And measures on the financial markets: Are you aware of the trend to no longer trade in dollars? I think so, and that it panics Europe because it panics the USA.
None of these measures will weaken Russia, at most it will delay the ongoing alliances between different blocs by a few months. You are betting on the wrong horse, the USA.
Indeed, the EU could only wait for the US to add Russia to its own blacklist of embargoed countries by decision of the US Senate. The principle – not contested by the EU – of the extra-territorial application of American law (see in particular the BNP case) would do the rest . JGG
If several personalities oppose the delivery of the Mistrals, the fact is that they are already built and paid for. If a NATO country wants to buy these ships on the same financial terms, there will be no problem, but I haven't seen any candidates. The French economy is not doing so well that we can make this deal on a profit and loss basis.