Ukraine is also a communications and intelligence war

(BRUSSELS2) The setting up of Western conversations on Ukraine continues. Today, it is thus a telephone conversation, apparently held on February 27, between the Estonian Minister for Foreign Affairs, Urmas Paet and the High Representative of the EU, Catherine Ashton, which thus finds itself in the public square (published over there russian radio russia today). Officially, it was the Ukrainian services of the SBU - "loyalist" tendency (alias Yanukovych) - which obtained the recording. We can add, without fear of making too many mistakes, that the "brother" services in Russia are no doubt no strangers to these revelations.

A regular exchange of information

This conversation - as the High Representative regularly has - is very interesting not only in these most "crispy" elements, distilled in the public square. But also because it reflects well the feelings and the will of the moment, and also the way in which the European Ministers of Foreign Affairs work among themselves. They exchange a lot of information, between them, than they want to say. And we feel in the conversation, a certain complicity, the will to move forward together, which is not always found in public attitudes... Listen here !

A lack of trust, security problems, a risk of disintegration of Ukraine

Lady Ashton asks the Estonian who is returning from kyiv (February 27) for his impression: “ there is no trust, no one (Nb: in the opposition) wants to participate, find themselves in this coalition government, (...) They will not leave the streets until they see evolution (...) There are security problems, a risk of disintegration ". " Crimea is already mentioned as the fear of an overflow in certain eastern cities by " the russian army ».

The European response in the making

The High Representative of the EU confirms that she is well aware of the situation and is working hard on it. " With Olli Rehn, we are working on a long-term financial package. » Etc. But she also explains the message she conveyed during a previous trip to opposition leaders: release the premises, be responsible. “If you barricade the buildings, if it doesn't work (...), we won't be able to give you any money. Because we need partners. And I told the opposition leaders to give a new sense of their role to this population, to put flowers where people have fallen, you have to show what happened there. »

Sniper fire targeted both sides. Someone from the opposition behind these shots?

Comes the most crisp moment of the interview. The Estonian Minister indicates his feeling of concern. “All the evidence shows that the people who were killed (were killed) by snipers. The policemen and the people in the streets (targeted), it was the same snipers killing these people on both sides. They showed me photos, of doctors, showing that they are the same practices, the same type of bullets. It is very disturbing that now the new coalition does not want to investigate what exactly happened. So there is now a very big big understanding that behind these snipers there was not Yanukovych but someone from the new coalition. (...) This also discredits, from the very beginning, the new coalition. » “We need to investigate this. I hadn't grasped it that way. My God " answers C. Ashton. But also to add We have to be careful. We are asking them for big changes. Being an activist and a doctor is not the same as being a politician. (...)”

An authentic conversation

This conversation has been authenticated by the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. " The recording of a telephone conversation between Foreign Minister Urmas Paet and High Representative Catherine Ashton that has been leaked online is authentic ". However, he rejects any interpretation of an involvement of the opposition. “We reject the claim that Paet was giving an assessment of the opposition's involvement in the violence. And the minister himself to denounce these wiretaps as these revelations. “It is extremely regrettable that phone calls are being intercepted. The fact that this phone call has been leaked is not a coincidence”.

Comment: What do you think?

Always put in context

This intervention may seem surprising. But, when interpreting a conversation, it must always be placed both in its context – a conversation between two political leaders who exchange their impressions at a given moment – ​​and in its moment. At that time, the reality was that there were doubts, questions: who were the shooters? Wasn't the opposition also somewhat responsible for the violence?

A fairly divided opinion

At the same time, I was in Athens at the meeting of the Ministers of Defense And with one of them (coming from an eastern country and who cannot be suspected of not being on the side of opposition), we chatted over coffee. He told me to be careful. " Not everything is black or white. There are certainly groups that seek to lead the trouble, extremist groups. That was the feeling at the time. And we could also have doubts.

A question about behavior

On the one hand, some police officers also seemed to have been targeted, with firearms. This does not mean that it is the opponents who are the cause. On the contrary, perhaps. On the other hand, the sniper teams seemed very well organized, too well organized not to come from groups already formed, professional, mobile, trained in urban guerrilla actions, powerfully armed and accustomed to precision fire. Clearly, it could not be simple police officers or even very organized demonstrators. When we observe the images broadcast and collect the testimonies, we can clearly see that these "snipers" had the objective of killing, cleaning up, without giving too much quarter, coldly. And we observe, moreover, that teams of well-constituted "provocateurs" had the mission of infiltrating the demonstrators, to discredit the opposition. It's a great classic...

Other interpretations

Because questioning does not mean certainty. Interpreting the facts directly as do the Russian channel Russia Today or certain commentators such as Jacques Sapir to conclude immediately that the snipers came from the opposition is risky. I will be more careful, very careful even. At the end of February, what we see is a corrupt power, at the end of its rope, which does not hesitate to use shock troops and the most extreme means in the face of an opposition which is sticking to its positions, does not seem in a position to win, but remains determined to oppose. The Estonian minister seems to exonerate Yanukovych — at the time —. But it's an impression of the moment — we all had doubts at that time about what had really happened —. It's not the final impression, with all the elements that we can have afterwards.

The flight of the former Ukrainian president does not really plead in his favor of the thesis of an innocent man rolled in flour by the opposition. Be serious ! Was it he who directly ordered the shooting. Or did he not let it happen? It is not forbidden to think that "hardliners", elements within power, also wanted to end it, before the end of the Olympics (before a possible Russian takeover which could also mean the end of their power) , with the consent, more or less real, more or less tacit, of the then president.

Similar behaviors in the past

That there were within the demonstrators elements determined to fight it out, that seems certain. But that certain elements have also been infiltrated or manipulated by the authorities, we must not refrain from thinking about it. Because, in past history, in all the "revolutions" that took place in the east in areas under Soviet or Russian influence (from Budapest 1956, Prague 1968, Warsaw 1980...), similar "revelations" tried to destabilize those who wanted to overthrow an overly autocratic regime. The resemblance is too striking not to fall into the traps thus set of crisp "revelations".

Who is behind these revelations?

Estonians are right to ask: why is this revelation coming now, when Yanukovych is on the run and trying to rehabilitate himself in the eyes of a majority of Ukrainians? And who is behind these revelations? Certainly the Russian services have an interest in fanning the fire and playing against each other, as they had tried in previous revelations, with Victoria Nuland's F... (read: When Victoria “fucks” Europe. Or Cow Friendship).

A communications and intelligence war

And it doesn't seem to be over... In the coming days, other conversations could thus filter through the press. Because the "phony war" that is happening in Crimea is also a "war of communication", a psychological war, a way of winning, or not, public opinion. The other lesson of this series of revelations is that many of the conversations that European diplomatic officials have are "listened in". And not just by the NSA. This will force both the Europeans to be more cautious (therefore will destabilize them) but also to review their procedures.

Europeans bugged, worrying

The conversations European diplomatic officials have on their phones don't seem very safe. There is a big concern here that needs to be addressed. Indeed, instead of wasting their time checking whether leaks, which could not be more innocent, have taken place in the press or monitoring their agents, the European authorities might urgently need to review their security procedures in the face of the real risks of destabilization.

(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde)