Blog AnalysisRussia Caucasus Ukraine

Russia will not let it go. Ukraine can say goodbye to Crimea

(credit: Russian Defense Ministry)
(credit: Russian Defense Ministry)

(BRUSSELS2) If most Europeans observe Russian reactions to Ukraine with caution, they are right. Some, however, reassure themselves that the Russians have no interest in clashing with their Western neighbors, that Russia's economic situation is fragile or difficult and the era of military intervention is over.

I would like to believe it if I lived in a magical city, with small legos to build houses, roads, where everything is thought out, logically, where you can undo and redo. But that would be forgetting one or two recent precedents, such as the intervention in Georgia in 2008, on the eve of the Beijing Olympics, or Moscow's complete blockage of Syria! Playing the ostrich will be useless. Russia will not be able to accept that Ukraine falls into the Western camp, and goes to NATO and the EU with arms and baggage.

A slap in the face in Moscow

Because the Ukrainian revolution of February, the "democratic coup" is a real slap in the face for the Kremlin. Ukraine is seeking to establish its independence a little more, it is doing so with the European Union, and in a democratic, multi-partisan spirit that is stronger than Russian centralism can be. The Kremlin cannot let this happen. Humiliated, he must very quickly reaffirm his leadership for his population first, then for the region, finally in the eyes of the world.

An atmosphere of "cold peace"

Indeed the era of the "cold war" is behind us. The Greatness of the USSR is no more. And the world has changed in 20 years, less simplistic, with many emerging power poles. But the "cold peace" continues. And today's Russia still has several weapons. First in Crimea and Sevastopol which is home to the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

Crimea and Sevastopol will leave Ukraine

kyiv can write off this peninsula, which was later attached to Ukraine and which already has autonomy. A little more effort. And it will be completely autonomous, even independent or attached to Russia. And it can happen very quickly. Of course the Europeans and NATO repeat in all tones their attachment to maintaining the territorial integrity of the country. " A stable, independent and sovereign Ukraine is a key to Euro-Atlantic security NATO Secretary General Anders-Fogh Rasmussen has just declared, ahead of the meeting of Alliance Defense Ministers. Will this have an effect. We can doubt it. The clock is ticking... fast.

Already, on the spot, certain movements are made. Trucks and concrete blocks seem to be set up, drawing a border, at least to "protect" Sevastopol (a city which is not part of the autonomous region of Crimea). It will then suffice to mass a few "peacekeeping" troops, in "protection", a bit like in Transnistria and South Ossetia. Then to organize a referendum of self-determination, in the manner... of Kosovo. And Crimea part of Ukraine will be finished. Who could oppose it?

All other means

Then there are minorities in Ukraine. In its legislative fever, the new parliament made a mistake: suppressing minority languages. A beautiful provocation that Russians and Russian speakers can only grasp. But above all there is a common economic fabric between Ukraine and Russia, especially in the south around Odessa or in the east. Will time play with appeasement or with tensions. Moscow has every interest in a strategy of tension, even if it means arousing them, provoking them. She has no interest in appeasement.

(Maj) we learn Thursday morning that armed men guard the buildings of the Crimean government.

(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde)

NB: A new article has been created with the elements of the Great Russian maneuvers: a “surprise” exercise that is not surprising

Nicolas Gros Verheyde

Chief editor of the B2 site. Graduated in European law from the University of Paris I Pantheon Sorbonne and listener to the 65th session of the IHEDN (Institut des Hautes Etudes de la Défense Nationale. Journalist since 1989, founded B2 - Bruxelles2 in 2008. EU/NATO correspondent in Brussels for Sud-Ouest (previously West-France and France-Soir).

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