B2 The Daily of Geopolitical Europe. News. Files. Reflections. Reports

Blog AnalysisEU Defense (Doctrine)

2014. Crises at every turn?

(credit: Russian Defense Ministry)
(credit: Russian Defense Ministry)

(BRUXELLES2 in Athens) The year 2014 - celebrated as the centenary of the start of the 1st World War for Europeans - should quickly find its own mark as the geopolitical stakes seem to be numerous in this coming year. If we leaf quickly through the calendar, we see how many appointments there are in crisis areas. Starting with the Middle East, which will be at the center of all attention.

The Middle East: on fire or at peace?

This year could be a turning point for the region. The negotiators Israeli et Palestinians agreed to meet until May to find a new peace agreement. Whether or not there is an agreement, this risks shaking the two countries and the two populations. But the hitherto repeated maxim - no peace in the Middle East without peace between Palestine and Israel - has lost its intensity and has made the resolution of the conflict less vital. Because the whole region is tectonic.

Syria, Lebanon, Iran...

The intensity of the conflict in Syria doesn't seem to be weakening. The internal fronts are fragmenting more and more until they become a bi-civil war: not only between the regime and the rebels/revolutionaries but between the rebels themselves. Bashar's regime, reviled until recently, now appears more like a guarantee of stability in the face of extremist movements that have gained ground. If the outcome of the negotiation - known as Geneva II - seems delicate, a solution will not put an end to the conflict anytime soon. THE Lebanon, close, which has so far held firm, is at the same time at the risk of a spiral of terror from one against the other, while welcoming a maximum number of refugees from Syria who would have brought down any what other country. As for theIran, it is engaged in a policy of reintegration of the international concert, which it would be very wrong not to neglect; a (temporary) solution to the nuclear conflict. For completeness, it would also be necessary to mention the Yemen in a perilous situation and theEgypt which has not always digested its Arab "spring".

In Iraq and Afghanistan, the zest of international intervention

The regular violence in Iraq did not alarm the international community so far, the capture of Fallujah by the group linked to Al Qaeda, the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIS), gives the conflict a pitched battle turn. In Afghanistan. , in 2014, enters a phase of the unknown with the end of the withdrawal of NATO troops, an electoral phase and a new international security mission which has not yet found its framework. These two countries have not thus finished digesting the remains of international interventions (unilateral for the first (led by the American-British, under the mandate of the United Nations and NATO for the second) which have finally nothing resolved, or even aggravated the previous situation.

The African arc of crisis

L'Africa around its Sahelian zone, from the arc of crisis of the Horn of Africa to the Gulf of Guinea is traversed by upheavals. The conflict in Central like at South Sudan is in the acute phase. And the wars Mali or Somalia are not finished. While a danger zone agitates the Libya, North ; and the Nigeria, South. Without forgetting the Congo, still in the throes of a conflict that has not yet found its end or other countries that could flare up. If piracy has disappeared as a major threat in the Indian Ocean, it remains active in the west of the continent.

The Russians on the move?

International initiatives are to be expected, particularly from Russia which, in addition to the Olympic Games in Sochi, will chair both the G8 and the Security Council in June and intends to restore its hate of "great power", lost since 1991. It now has the means and benefits from a favorable climate for this resurgence, in the wake of its "Ukrainian victory" over Europe last year.

And meanwhile...

During this time, the Europeans will be on an electoral "holiday". The next few months will be devoted for parliamentarians and European commissioners to complete the files in progress, before leaving for the electoral campaign, or in search of a base. An activity that will also concern a good part of the European high administration for whom the part of the European puzzle can be the opportunity for more interesting careers. Between March and November (when the new European Commission will be fully installed), culminating in May-June (during the European elections and the official distribution of the main posts), we will witness - while part of the world will be in boiling - to a certain European sluggishness, where initiatives will be more complicated than usual...

Yet Europe has a few tricks up its sleeve. On the one hand, it seems determined to assert itself on certain crises, particularly in the Central African Republic with the launch of an operation, like EUFOR, around Bangui or further in the country (read on the Club - free access: The first options for an EUFOR Bangui operation). And it should be added that two European countries will be at the helm of the Security Council in the spring. Luxembourg and Lithuania (in February and March).

Happy New Year !

Nicolas Gros Verheyde

Chief editor of the B2 site. Graduated in European law from the University of Paris I Pantheon Sorbonne and listener to the 65th session of the IHEDN (Institut des Hautes Etudes de la Défense Nationale. Journalist since 1989, founded B2 - Bruxelles2 in 2008. EU/NATO correspondent in Brussels for Sud-Ouest (previously West-France and France-Soir).

One thought on “2014. Crises at every turn?"

  • Giraud Jean-Guy

    It would indeed be useful for the EU to emerge as quickly as possible from its current lethargy and impotence in matters of diplomacy and defence. Could we only consider the outgoing officials – MM. Barroso and Van Rompuy as well as Mrs Ashton – jointly take stock of the European situation in these two areas and propose to their successors as well as to the Institutions and the Member States a precise plan/catalogue of reforms and initiatives to relaunch the CFSP/ESDP as soon as the Parliament and the Commission are reconstituted? This would at least give these two policies the place they deserve in the pre-electoral debate and quickly start the necessary negotiations from the end of 2014. JGG

Comments closed.

s2Member®