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Iran. Janus' Victory. First lessons from a historic agreement

The negotiators. (From left to right) Jacques Audibert (France), Sergei Ryabkhov (Russia), Helga Schmid (EEAS), Catherine Ashton (EU on behalf of the 5+1), Mohamad Javad Zarif (Iranian Foreign Minister), Seyyed Abbas Araghchi (Iran) (credit: EEAS)
The negotiators. (From left to right) Jacques Audibert (France), Sergei Ryabkhov (Russia), Helga Schmid (EEAS), Catherine Ashton (EU on behalf of the 5+1), Mohamad Javad Zarif (Iranian Foreign Minister), Seyyed Abbas Araghchi (Iran) (credit: EEAS)

(BRUSSELS2) The power of negotiation, and of sanctions, have won out over warlike feeling. In other words, the victory of Janus (God of doors) over Mars (God of war). Here, in a nutshell, is the feeling one can have immediately after the announcement in Geneva of an Iranian nuclear agreement. Admittedly, this is only an interim agreement valid for six months. And we will have to see if Tehran respects all the terms of the contract. But we can really use the term "historical". And we can begin to draw some lessons for the future.

The great diplomatic game

This agreement could seal the big Iran's return to the diplomatic scene international. It could thus produce effects by ricochet on the regional scene. For the situation in Syria as in Afghanistan, or in Palestine, we can hope that this agreement will be positive. Let's hope that the next Geneva conference which should soon be held between the Syrians and the international community will also be crowned with success. For the Gulf countries (Saudi Arabia, Qatar...) which, until now, had a "privileged" position, this no doubt means a certain reduction in their power or, rather, a fair return to their place original. For Israel, this agreement could have a double effect: negative version, it gives Iran financial breath and allows it to financially support its Hezbollah or Hamas allies; positive version (in the longer term), the two large "non-Arab" countries of the region are re-establishing the links they had lost.

For Russia, it is also a new victory. Russian diplomacy has played a significant role in pushing for an agreement with Iran and refusing to go further with new sanctions. " The sanctions coalition threatened to unravel. Because Iran offered a diplomatic solution. And we would have been unable to get our partners to do the essential work needed to strengthen our sanctions. recognizes the US State Department.

La France was probably right to block the first elements of the agreement. Paris has played a key role in maintaining pressure on Iran (hence the elements of "non-reversible" advances). We could wonder about the reasons for this blockage. Several elements came into play. But we must not forget that among the negotiating countries, France was one of the only countries to be a victim of terrorism led by Iran. At the same time, the French government managed to re-establish stronger ties with Israel.

The "sanctions" effect: the victory of Janus

On the European and international side, we can only be satisfied with this result, which validates the position of European diplomacy as well as the European sanctions system. As a result, we can effectively consider that it is a victory for the spirit of Janus, who was traditionally represented as holding a key in one hand (negotiation, opening) and the other rods (sanctions) .

La increase in power, progressive and regular, sanctions from both the European Union and the United States, which gradually targeted the main factors of the Iranian economy (oil, finance, insurance, industry, maritime, etc.), had an effect direct - on the Iranian market - but also indirect. They diverted part of the Western companies from the Persian market considered to be at risk.

The Europeans have, in fact, remained united throughout this procedure, despite the difficulty for certain countries, such as Greece, which have had to adapt and suffer the adverse effects of the measures taken by the European Union (for example by depriving of cheap oil, because granted on credit). This fact is to be underlined all the more since we often like to show Europeans divided.

For european diplomacy, it is also unquestionably a victory. And not least! Because it has during all these years coordinated the efforts of the 5+1 and led the debates. She knew how to maintain over time, and despite the difficulties or failures, the thread of the dialogue.

Naturally, this good result will be to the credit of the High Representative of the EU, Catherine Ashton, which was negotiating on behalf of the P5+1 when we will take stock of its action in a few months, in the same way as the dialogue in the Balkans.

We must not, however, forget to associate this action with that of his predecessor, Javier Solana, who had made the Iranian dossier one of his favorite subjects. And we must not overlook an important fact: this progress is above all due to the change of position and regime in Tehran.

The "bludgeon" effect should not be underestimated either. By repeatedly waving the threat of strikes, Israel played the role of the bad boy. Similarly, discreet actions such as the introduction of computer viruses into Iranian information systems were a marker of the negotiation.

The details of the interim agreement on the Club

Nicolas Gros Verheyde

Chief editor of the B2 site. Graduated in European law from the University of Paris I Pantheon Sorbonne and listener to the 65th session of the IHEDN (Institut des Hautes Etudes de la Défense Nationale. Journalist since 1989, founded B2 - Bruxelles2 in 2008. EU/NATO correspondent in Brussels for Sud-Ouest (previously West-France and France-Soir).

One thought on “Iran. Janus' Victory. First lessons from a historic agreement"

  • Eumenes of Cardia

    I can't help but wonder if behind the displayed euphoria we are not all the same heading, to a certain extent and all things considered, towards a contemporary Munich, namely that everyone shouts "peace in our time ” but that the warmongers are far from resigning, the Israeli reaction being the illustration.

    Because looking closely, do we really gain from relaxing, even partially, the sanctions? In my opinion, no, not really. Iran will be able to breathe a little, its government to rebuild some reserves of benevolence from its population before being able, if it wishes, to resume its previous path, while the hawks of Tel Aviv will have a good game of presenting themselves as victims of the duplicity of the world and will shout that they absolutely must not wait any longer to carry out "preventive" operations, especially at a time when on other fronts Iran is announcing progress (note for example the announcement dating less than a week from a new drone with a supposed range of 2000km: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24993269).

    Moreover, each passing day, even without the enrichment of new fissile material, is a day that brings Iran closer to the development of an atomic weapon: it would be very unlikely that no research team would work in this field in the country, and these engineers must continue to justify their salary…

    So no reason to rejoice 🙁

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