EUPOL Copps (6). The underlying peace process
(BRUSSELS2) Negotiations are discreet, very discreet. " It's a good sign says an observer. The two sides, however, are apparently past the stage of exchanging positions. And it is a second phase which is now beginning, with a deadline. Palestinians and Israelis have given themselves 9 months to achieve this. So by May.
The peace process, not popular
Negotiating the peace process is not deeply supported by public opinion, either on the Israeli side or on the Palestinian side. " He there is a serious negotiation effort. But there is an antipathy, a disinterest on the Palestinian side. (…) Abbas's decision to enter into negotiations is not a very popular decision: among the population or in the parties, the PLO is largely opposed to this process explains a European expert. Added to this is a small number of tangible signs for Palestinian public opinion of the desire for change. Prisoners have been freed. But the number is really too low. There are also difficulties of access, the number of colonies which increases. (…) The atmosphere has not changed in the streets of Palestine. »
The impact of EU guidelines
The impact of the guidelines adopted by the European Union, aimed at sanctioning the peace process, is there, says a European diplomat. " Netanyahu understood that there was an economic price not to be negotiated and that convinced him to enter into negotiations ».
The impact of the neighborhood situation
The situation in Egypt as in Syria has an impact on the peace process, for the moment, considered rather positive by European observers. The ousting of the Muslim Brotherhood from Egypt made Abbas happy. And the blocking of the tunnels puts Hamas under double pressure: Egyptian on the one hand, Israeli on the other. From there to Hamas losing power, the answer seems negative. " Hamas is resilient, patient. They exercise all means to ensure control. The situation in Syria has more of an impact in Israel. The uncertainty of the conflict puts both partners at risk.