Gulf Middle East

The first strike took place… virtual

The USS Barry during the operation in Libya (credit: US Navy - March 2011)
The USS Barry during the operation in Libya (credit: US Navy - March 2011)

(BRUSSELS2) The uncertainty about the nature of the strikes against Syria is certainly politically disastrous. However, it has a tactical advantage. Contrary to what one can say, it sows in the adversary a certain disorganization. He doesn't know when or where the opponent will hit him. Or even if he eventually will. So that's the worst case scenario...

Political uncertainty, tactical advantage.

He must reorganize his defense. While continuing at the same time to face rebel attacks. In fact, even if no element is yet destroyed, for the Assad regime, it is a bit as if a second front had opened up (alongside that of the rebels). Another disadvantage for the Syrian regime: it has to protect, shelter certain capacities. This may force him to discover himself momentarily. And thus allows to give to the "observers", information on its exact capacities. In fact, in a virtual way, military strikes are already having an initial effect. But for the allies (France, USA and United Kingdom to a lesser extent), this tactical "game" has some drawbacks. By forcing him to move certain equipment, in particular chemical weapons, we risk the dissemination of these weapons, which is contrary to the officially announced objective.

Nicolas Gros Verheyde

Chief editor of the B2 site. Graduated in European law from the University of Paris I Pantheon Sorbonne and listener to the 65th session of the IHEDN (Institut des Hautes Etudes de la Défense Nationale. Journalist since 1989, founded B2 - Bruxelles2 in 2008. EU/NATO correspondent in Brussels for Sud-Ouest (previously West-France and France-Soir).

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